Tropical Storm Leslie is a “potential threat” to the island the Bermuda Weather Service said, with the system currently to our south-southeast and is expected to arrive towards Sunday [Sept 9].
The BWS said: ” Clouds and a few showers will be in our area through Thursday, well ahead of the approach of Tropical Storm Leslie. Leslie is currently to our south-southeast and is expected to arrive towards Sunday.
“Rough swells producing hazardous surf and possible rip tides have already arrived. Conditions begin to deteriorate later Friday as Leslie draws nearer.”
“Based upon the midnight forecast advisory, Leslie is expected to intensify to a category II hurricane as it approaches to about 60nm to our south by Saturday evening.”
The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Leslie is presently 541 miles south south-east of Bermuda, and is moving towards the north at 3mph. Its maximum sustained winds remain near 65mph [100km/h] with higher gusts.
RMS said: “Leslie is forecast by the NHC to track northward towards Bermuda, and is forecast to be approximately 30 miles (48 km) off of the southwest coast of Bermuda on 06:00 UTC on Sunday, September 9.
“The NHC official forecast track is to the middle of the model track guidance envelope, with models generally consistent as to a track to the north over the forecast period. Wind shear has thus far prevented Leslie from becoming better organized, and wind shear is forecast to continue to impede intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours.
“However, beyond this time the wind shear is forecast to weaken and Leslie is forecast to intensify – the NHC is forecasting Leslie to be a Category 2 hurricane by 00:00 UTC on Sunday, Leslie be a Category 2 hurricane (when southwest of Bermuda). Most early cycle intensity models are also calling for Leslie to strengthen to a Category 2. The GFS and NGPS are forecasting rapid intensification of Leslie.”
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