Scientists Predict Active 2013 Hurricane Season
After three consecutive years with a remarkable 19 named storms in the Atlantic, expect another Atlantic hurricane season with similar levels of activity in 2013, says the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University [CSU] in their latest seasonal forecast issued yesterday [Apr. 10].
They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with 18 named storms, nine hurricanes, four intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] of 165.
The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, six hurricanes, three intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. The active hurricane period that began in 1995 has averaged 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
The 2013 forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the US, both along the East Coast — 48 percent chance, 31 pecent chance is average — and the Gulf Coast — 47 percent chance, 30 percent chance is average.
The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61 percent chance of seeing at least one major hurricane, with 42 percent being average.
Five years with similar pre-season February and March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as “analogue” years that the 2013 hurricane season may resemble: 2004 [which featured seven major hurricanes, including four that hit the US]; 1996 [six major hurricanes, including Category 3 Hurricane Fran that hit North Carolina]; 1966 [three major hurricanes, featuring Categort 4 Inez, which hit Mexico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida); 1952 [only seven named storms, but three major hurricanes]; and 1915, which boasted a Category 3 hurricane that hit New Orleans and a Category 4 that hit Galveston.
These years all had neutral El Niño conditions, above-average Sea Surface Temperatures in the tropical and North Atlantic, and cool ocean temperatures in the Northeast Pacific during February-March. None of the five analogue years had a significant El Niño during the peak of the hurricane season.
The average activity for these years was 10 named storms, seven hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
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Category: All, Environment
