Burchall On Recession & Population Decrease
[Opinion column written by Larry Burchall] Government does not see something that has happened! So how can Government’s Ministers and top Civil Servants fix a problem that they don’t even see?
In the July 2010 and 2013 Bond Prospectuses, the Ministry of Finance publicly and globally reported that Bermuda’s population had grown steadily, reaching 65,002 in 2013. The Ministry was adamant that between 2008 and 2013, there had been no drop in Bermuda’s residential population [ResPop].
Chart provided by Mr. Burchall, click to enlarge:
Suddenly, in February 2014 Government waved a magic wand and made 3,048 people disappear. Pouf! Now, the Department of Statistics [DoS] reported that ResPop was 64,209 in 2008 but had fallen by 3,048 to a new and lower figure of 61,954 in 2013. So in the six months between August 2013 and February 2014, Government made 3,048 people magically disappear. Pouf!
Look deeper. Take the DoS’s 61,954 ResPop count for 2013 as an agreed start point.
In its annual Employment Briefs, for 2008 and 2013, the DoS report these facts for the number of ‘filled jobs’ in Bermuda:
- Bermudians – 27,180 – 24,504 [2,676 fewer jobs filled. Unemployed? Still resident.]
- Spouses of B’dians – 1,956 – 1,932 [24 fewer jobs filled. Unemployed? Still resident.]
- PRCs – 710 – 834 [124 more jobs filled. Already resident. Still resident.]
- Other Non-B’dians – 10,367 – 7,007 [3,360 fewer jobs filled. No longer resident.]
- Total Workforce – 40,213 – 34,277 [5,936 fewer. Some still resident, some not.]
In 2013, there were 3,360 fewer jobs filled by non-Bermudian Guest Workers. If non-Bermudians become unemployed or are no longer filling jobs here, they are required to leave Bermuda. Their only other options are to become ‘spouses’ or PRCs.
Thus, by 2013, at least 3,000 GW’s who were ‘filling jobs’ must have left Bermuda. This 3,000/3,360 departed between the high point of 2008 and 2013. The departure of 3,000/3,360 ‘job fillers’ meant a consequential reduction in Bermuda’s ResPop.
Putting the numbers together and going back to the agreed DoS start point of 61,954, we get:
- 61,954 – persons found, by DoS, to be resident in Bermuda in 2013.
- 3,000 – just shown as the lowest number of Guest Workers who should have, or who must have, left Bermuda, since peak year of 2008.
- 64,954 – By addition, the Resident Population in 2008 [higher than DoS reports for 2008]
If, generally, each GW had 0.5 dependents [spouse, children], then the total minimum ResPop reduction might be 3,000/3,360 x 1.5 = 4,500/5,040 total persons who left Bermuda’s ResPop. Factoring in GW Dependents at the lowest number of 4,500:
- 61,954 – persons found, by DoS, to be resident in Bermuda in 2013.
- 4,500 – the number of Guest Workers + dependents who should have left, or who have left Bermuda, since peak year of 2008.
- 66,454 – By addition, the Resident Population in 2008 [higher than DoS reports for 2008]
Mr. Burchall speaking at the recent PechaKucha event:
But the DoS reports that a total of 684 Bermudians emigrated between 2000 and 2010. If we assume an average of 68 per year, we get 204 Bermudians emigrating between 2008 and 2010. I won’t speculate on emigration in 2011, 2012, and 2013.
Putting the Bermudian emigration factor into context, an even higher ResPop number comes up:
- 61,954 – persons found, by DoS, to be resident in Bermuda in 2013.
- 4,500 – the number of Guest Workers + dependents who should have left, or who have left Bermuda, since peak year of 2008.
- 200 – Bermudians who emigrated in the period 2008, 2009, 2010.
- 66,654 – By addition, the Resident Population in 2008 [higher than DoS reports for 2008]
Finally, using the higher, but still very conservative number for GW’s and their dependents, this is the final ResPop calculation for 2008:
- 61,954 – persons found, by DoS, to be resident in Bermuda in 2013.
- 5,040 – the number of Guest Workers + dependents who should have, or who have left Bermuda since peak year of 2008.
- 200 – Bermudians who emigrated in the period 2008, 2009, 2010.
- 67,194 – By addition, the Resident Population in 2008 [close to what the Private Sector reports for 2008 and much higher than the 64,209 reported by DoS]
In its new February 2014 report, the DoS said that between 2008 and 2013, Bermuda had suffered a ResPop loss of 2,255 persons [a 3.5% drop]. The Private Sector calculation – what you’ve just read – shows a same period ResPop loss of 5,240 persons [an 8.0% drop]; and this may be a low estimate. The real ResPop drop could be around 9% – 10% with ResPop possibly lower than 61,954 in 2013.
Bermuda’s six year long recession can only end if ResPop grows. Growing ResPop results in GDP growing. But if Ministers and top Civil Servants don’t know that ResPop has fallen, they cannot understand the need to grow ResPop. If Ministers and top Civil Servants don’t know what the problem is, how can they fix the problem? [See the chart for a clear picture of the two ResPop trends that Ministers and Civil Servants see; and the completely different trend that the Private Sector sees.]
Since 2012, I have consistently maintained that Bermuda’s now six year long recession is driven by this big drop in ResPop. I maintain that the ResPop drop is from 67,000/68,000 in 2008 to a 2014 ResPop that is lower than the 62,059 ResPop counted in Census 2000. This means a ResPop loss of more than 6,000 people. Using the DoS’s own publicly reported figures, I’ve shown you why I say that.
The Bermuda Government has got its basic ResPop numbers wrong! How the devil can Government – any Government – fix a problem that it doesn’t even see or understand? How?
- Larry Burchall
The OBAs idea is to grow the Bermudian population and decrease the PRC population with no movement of people across the border . Well I guess you can have your cake and eat it too ! Now where oh where is the huge influx of high net worth individuals and families promised by the OBA in its rebuilding of Bermuda campaign ?
Don’t worry, that’s coming next. Min Fahy has already talked about comprehensive Immigration reform. The fact that Bermuda has lost around 10% of our population in the recent years, means that we need it too.
Where are the high net worth people? With all the anti non Bermudian rhetoric coming from the PLP and P C I expect they are staying well clear of Bermuda. What did Dr Brown say? I want to make white people feel uncomfortable, and you wonder why they stay away? The PLP is clear they do not want such people and they are getting their wish whether on a work permit or as a visitor. So live with what you party sows or turn over the mat to say “Welcome”.
Wow … That says a lot ! So your telling me that in your opinion only white people are high net worth , no wonder the philosophy of the OBA appeals to you .. What a EFFIN eye opener … WOW ! And the fact that you feel very comfortable expressing such a disgusting worldview …WOW ! You should be ashamed of yourself Ringmaster … But you not …
Thanks @Coffee it is clear that the regular OBA cheerleaders fail to recognize that the world economy has changed, as well as the business model. The government must seek to diverfield Bermuda’s economy if we are to be successful in the near future.
This backward and forward attempt to place the blame at the feet of one particular political party is far from the truth. We are in a new world of economics and Bermuda has to do business different. The model of IB has changed, the model of tourism has changed. Tourism Authority is a waste of money, no real profits from it so far, except a big fat paycheck to the Chief Non-Bermudian boss.
IB can do business cheaper elsewhere and does not require the large number of individuals. Technology has come far today, and change how they do business. Why do we still think that large numbers of people will flock to Bermuda, if the model of doing Business has changed? Term limits removed by OBA, still no change or profits. So that was never the real problem to begin with, but the model slowly changed.
If we continue to think bringing in individuals is the golden key to all of Bermuda’s problems, well we are way off the mark. That is the old outdated model of how the economy works, sad many still do not see it. Need to read more updated info.
You are so clueless. Are you saying that it is cheaper to do business in NY, Zurich, London, etc… than Bermuda? Non of these business centers had the mass exodus that Bermuda had during the financial crisis, so why only Bermuda? I’ll answer it for you – TERM LIMITS!
Incorrect. In fact I admire people such as Freddie Yearwood who was a self made millionaire starting in the segregation years. Someone who instead of moaning about life’s challenges overcame them and became very wealthy.
There are many more wealthy non white people. I only used the statement by Dr. Brown to reinforce part of my opinion.
So you get to use one finger naming a black foreigner who came to these shores penniless and made good .. But as deflection is the name of your game … Use up a few more of your fingers in relation to high net worth black people you know who could be woo’d to make this reef their domicile .
Your comment is more proof that you are anti foreigner, especially black foreigners apparently, which is the mindset of so many and why Bermuda and Bermudians will suffer more. Why denigrate someone like Freddie Yearwood as a “black foreigner”? Are you aware that the roots of so many in the PLP (and Bermudians generally) are from St Kitts?
Sad you have so little love of Bermuda to refer to it as a reef.
Those are your words , your thoughts , they have absolutely no relevance to me . As I repeat to you , your worldview doesn’t see black people in the high net worth bracket .
It is for that reason people like you found it illogical that Dr. Browns wife’s family are long time residents of Martha’s Vineyard .
You were nowhere to be seen at the celebrations when certain black people rejoiced at the fantastic news that our FREDERICK YEARWOOD was invited by the Bermuda Monetary Authority to have his signature on our legal tender . I should put you over my knee and spank the ignorance out of you .
So you have now shown yourself to be racist, xenophobic, vitriolic and violent. A bad combination. Maynard Dill may want to talk to you.
And your insanity has yet bottomed out ! Keep posting , it’s kinda fun pushing you to the depths of your instability . LOL
I think you drew that conclusion, ringmaster was stating that a group was deterred. He never said what you accuse him of.
There are lots of high net worth folks across the board.
Only have to look at the media to see that. I’m not talking about the US media…I’m talking world media.
Well, I read the article but it pretty much comes down to this.
Statistics are, well, statistics, not actual facts.
So just because one group of people derive one set of results doesn’t mean another group of people are going to derive the same set of results.
No no no no! You are mistaking the facts that Mr Burchall is presenting for statistics.
Statistics are calculations that use a sample population to attempt to predict or infer something about a larger population set without asking everybody in that set.
Mr Burchall’s numbers represent the entire sample set. There is no statistical calculation necessary to infer anything that can be misinterpreted!
If you don’t understand something the default reaction should not be to shut it down and disbelieve it entirely. A lack of critical thinking from supporters of both parties is how we got into polarised partisan politics in the first place!
It’s my understanding that statistics aren’t necessarily extrapolation from a sample to a larger number, but can also be the manner in which data in hand is analysed and presented.
As the depression continues on all you need do is look at the streets…….empty….restaurants…….empty…shops…..empty. …we are under 60,000 and still declining
So in other words, the changing of government really didn’t change anything at all ! But it has !! As you admit Navin,things are actually declining under the OBA ! One paradox you missed out on though , empty flights coming in , full flights going out !
It stopped the accelerating decline and we are at or around the bottom of the curve. Pretty clear that we need more folks here, so when Eron Hill and the PLP folks rant on about non-Bermudians coming to the island they are 100% missing the point.
Just imagine how much worse it might have been if the PLP had won! Scary…
Probably for the PRC holders simply because the PLP would’ve shut down the unintended legal “loophole.”
Coffee, you’re missing two things. First, it ain’t a “loophole”. It’s the law. Second, the government can’t change the law retroactively.
Coffee many people recognize that the OBA,or any other party but the PLP, is the only hope to stop the downward spiral caused by the previous government. If the OBA only has one term the downward slide accelerates. People have no food and could sure use the $800,000,000 that was pissed away….
The only people denying that the res population hadn’t dropped was the PLP in their attempt to mask their failed policies like term limits. All rational Bermudians know that thousands of guest workers and their families have left Bermuda as result of term limits. Just ask Bermudians working at shipping companies, Belco, Cablevision, Schools, etc… Now the OBA has been given the hard task to regrow the guest worker population that should have never left in the first place! Meanwhile the PLP/BIU/People’s Campaign continue to put party before country with their negativity and counter-productiveness. Good luck OBA!
Yup.
Coffee et al will simply refuse to admit it.
They think having marches to drive more people away is the answer. How ridiculous is that?
PLP Standing strong for the economies of Cayman, Zurich, Dublin, London, Halifax, Toronto, Sydney, Singapore, Gibraltar, Malta…..
PLP is standing strong for nothing except extreme stupidity. Indoctrination of vulnerable, unaware people of limited education. PLP has almost become a religion – why else would anyone believe in their complete BS?
Chris, you’re missing the sarcasm in CamperVan’s statement – the PLP was actively boosting the economy of all of the places on his list. Just not Bermuda’s.
OBA,introduce policies to bring people in here,
There is more to just numbers. There has been a sizeable shift in the demographics of the workforce. Many of the Work Permit holders who left were middle to upper management with families and children. High earners who spent a lot on rent, schools, food, restaurants, camps etc. One work permit but 3 or 4 people in the family and several more Bermudians in the work force to support them. They have been replaced by a single person on a much lower salary who sends most off island. The negative impact is therefore magnified.
What Bermuda needs and urgently are more workers in middle to top salary ranges which will then have a trickle down effect. Plus investors to build hotels and other income generating infrastructure. Unfortunately the PLP are going out of their way to make sure this doesn’t happen. After scaring off potential investors they must be hoping that a wand and pixy dust will solve the problem.
When will you people accept that the business model has changed worldwide … Keep waiting for that massive influx of wealthy foreigners to facilitate your lifestyle … You’ll be waiting one ‘ell of a long time ! Meanwhile get use to eating leftovers for lunch !
The business model hasn’t changed. Those people who left Bermuda still have jobs at the same salaries as they did they’re just not working here. Instead they are working in often more expensive jurisdictions that weren’t hostile toward them.
Prove it .
What are you doing, or proposing to do Coffee in order to pay down the PLP debt burden?
Coffe, what business model are you referring to? – The PLP’s Model of driving as many people away as possible while spending an insurmountable amount of money?!
Remember you also have to pay for that debt . . . one day there won’t even be any leftover for lunch.
Don’t know how far back you could go but , Sir John Swan and President Ronald Reagan signed a TAX treaty back in ’89 for about 20 yrs going forward allowing American companies to operate here in Bermuda if they chose to at much reduced tax rates , many took advantage . Fast forward , in the last few years those agreements have expired and technology has basically rendered that business model of escaping US TAX LAWS AND THE TAX CODES almost impossible . RULES AND REGULATIONS HAVE TIGHTENED . MANY “LOOPHOLES “have closed AS AMERICA HAS BEEN FORCED TO DEAL WITH ITS OWN HUMONGOUS DEFICITS AND DEBT .
Now jurisdictions such as Bermuda must deal with the far reaching and powerful FATCA legislation put into action by Congress to farther weed out and punish tax cheats .. Enough of that , if you don’t know than your only option is to continue living in the fools paradise created by the OBA in your mind . Nobody is coming , we must create another stream of income . Bottom line .
1985 but don’t let facts get in the way. So what are your solutions to the economic crisis faced by Bermuda?
I hate OBA trolls such as you to spout lies and untruths.
There is no hate as strong or as real as self hate … Please go get the help you need . Good bye ..
“Facts are stubborn. Statistics are more pliable.”