EIU Analysis On OBA, PLP & Upcoming Election

May 15, 2017

“Risks are high that the OBA will suffer losses in the election amid dwindling public support,” a recent Economist Intelligence Unit analysis said, adding that the PLP “benefit not only from its ability to mobilise its more activist backers in demonstrations, but also from the selection in November of a new leader.”

The EIU said, “The political scene will be dominated in the short term by manoeuvring ahead of the general election, which is due by December 2017.

“The governing centre right One Bermuda Alliance [OBA] is now a minority government, holding 17 of the 36 seats in the House of Assembly [the elected lower house] following the defection from the party of Mark Pettingill, a lawmaker, in March 2017. His resignation followed the defection in 2016 of Shawn Crockwell. Both men will now sit in the legislature as independents.

“Although the opposition centre-left Progressive Labour Party [PLP] also holds 17 seats, in practice the OBA still has a working majority, as Mr Pettingill has vowed to support the OBA’s legislative agenda. However, there is no leeway for further dissent within the OBA.

“The Economist Intelligence Unit’s baseline forecast is that the premier, Michael Dunkley, will serve out his term, which has just nine months to run, but risks are high that the OBA will suffer losses in the election amid dwindling public support.

Noting that the “OBA was hit” by “days of strikes by public-sector workers,” as well as “unrest and clashes with the police in December, when protesters demonstrated outside the legislature against a controversial airport redevelopment plan,” the EIU said there is “a high risk of further protests in 2017, which could further damage the government’s standing.”

“Furthermore, the opposition PLP will benefit not only from its ability to mobilise its more activist backers in demonstrations, but also from the selection in November of a new leader, David Burt, who replaced the ill and unpopular Marc Bean. These events have revived the PLP’s chances ahead of the next election.

“Although the OBA will strive to boost its standing on the back of a recovering economy and Bermuda’s hosting of the America’s Cup yacht race in June—the largest event ever hosted by the country—the election will be close, but with the PLP looking increasingly well positioned to win.”

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  1. sandgrownan says:

    So, The Economist has finally figured out that the average man in the street is an idiot, prepared to vote against his own self interest to “stick it to the man”. Prepared to be a single issue, low information voter without examining the big picture. See Brexit, see Donald Trump.

    The right to vote should really be based on IQ tested.

    • The right to run in politics should be based on ‘common sense’ tested.

    • ABM says:

      Im an average man from the street – are you calling me an idiot as well???

    • Its me again says:

      If thats what you got from reading this something is wrong with you.

      • sandgrownan says:

        I actually found the article pretty crap to be honest – not exactly insightful.

    • VIP says:

      Honestly it’s people like you that really do no justice for the ruling OBA party when you type on here. You need to shut up and zip it!!!!!!

      • sandgrownan says:

        The OBA need to go on the political offensive – they are always playing catch up. They need to remind the average man on the street exactly what the PLP did to Bermuda. And they need to do it constantly.

        Remember – the average man in the street has the political attention span of a house fly – you have to keep hammering the message until it sticks.

  2. wahoo says:

    It is interesting to note that nowhere in this article does it mention that the plp will win based on there sound understanding of economics or their past performance. I think that the author is an armchair reporter and does not grasp the fact that the majority of Bermuda do not trust the words or the ability of the plp.

  3. Ringmaster says:

    A rather strange and shallow analysis. The EIU expect the PLP to win by mobilizing activists. This is in my opinion more likely to alienate swing voters and work against the PLP. Also there is no mention of a better economic platform put forward by the PLP, or why the PLP will do a better job to handle and pay down the debt they created. The EIU should do better.

  4. San George says:

    You would not think the OBA has only 15 seats given their behavior – pathway to citizenship, an airport that only their crony members support, pepper spraying protesters, tens of millions in guarantees that taxpayers will be responsible for, increased debt and no vision for the island. Quo Fata Ferunt

    • DarkStar says:

      The OBA has a vision and it is for all Bermudians and moving Bermuda forward so all can prosper. The PLP had 12 years to show and act on their vision and all it did was help their select few and broke the country-it did not bring Bermuda forward but rather put Bermuda back 5 steps. Yes the UBP had issues etc…but a majority of Bermuda (black and white-UBP/PLP) moved forward and prospered under the UBP rule. Since the last election, under the OBA- again black and white-OBA and PLP are prospering and moving forward-if you want to work right now you would have to have serious issues if you couldn’t find a job and it has been jamming for nearly 4 years solid-the change in Gov’t, hurricanes, the AC-3, major projects under way —-and this is all in 4 years!!! I fully support a vision that moves BERMUDA forward

  5. Truth is killin' me... says:

    I don’t believe anything when it comes to forecasting election results. You just have to look at Brexit and the US Trump win. All the forecasters where wrong….TRUTH!!

    • You would have believed it if it was in U.B.P.’s favour.

      • Truth Teller says:

        And what of the recent French Election?
        The polls were spot on about Marcon.

        • Truth is killin' me... says:

          2 out of 3 is 66.66% wrong. Over 50% is a RISK!

      • Wahoo says:

        Funny you mention ubp….

  6. Onion says:

    The PLP of 2017 has all the hallmarks of a right or far-right party. If they were centre-left they wouldn’t be anti-immigrant, homophobic, and use racial identity politics.

    • Only difference is P.L.P dont have de economic persausion to minipulate racial and social injustice.

      • bdaboy says:

        “Only difference is P.L.P dont have de economic persausion to minipulate racial and social injustice.”

        Sure they do, they’re just too stupid and lazy to actually do anything…they want handouts, like you do.

        • Tell that to Paula Cox who was denied a job because of her political persuasion and many others we have’nt heard of.

          • WillSee says:

            She was denied a job because of her performance as finance minister!

          • wahoo says:

            What job?

          • bdaboy says:

            “Tell that to Paula Cox who was denied a job because of her political persuasion and many others we have’nt heard of.”

            Still making things up?
            Give up OJ, you don’t have an argument, you’re just trying to create one.

          • PLPNA says:

            Who, other than the PLP ( and maybe Donald Trump), would hire the worst Finance Minister in Bermudas’ history?

          • Sara says:

            Maybe she was denied a job because she put her country into financial ruin! Has anyone ever thought of that!

    • Truth Teller says:

      Only racists use the terms racial identity politics along with terms such as the race-card.

      These are tems that Trump and Brexit supporters use all the time.

      Look in the mirror “Onion”

  7. Beverley C says:

    Two thirds of economists called the Brexit vote wrong. Most political pundits thought/called a Hillary win. Time will tell and we the people will get the government we deserve.

    • Truth is killin' me... says:

      If I could like this comment a 1000% I would.

  8. Bumbling bear says:

    Great analysis, but the word on the street from the swing voter ( which is about 10% of the votes ) who truly decides the election is that while they may not like some of the things the oba has done , at the same time they do not believe David Burt and the PLP are ready to lead the country yet.
    They still don’t trust this with the PLP.

    The PLP needs to rebrand and get new faces just as the oba does

  9. Toodle-oo says:

    Anyone reading this from overseas and unfamiliar with the racial dynamic of local politics could almost be forgiven for believing that the OBA is a monster doing a pathetic job and the island needs the PLP to be (re)elected to save us all .

    • All depends who you ask, if you ask de undeserved privileged in de right circle person you would get a different answer from de average underpaid or unemployed struggling person.

      • Toodle-oo says:

        FYI I AM unemployed now but if you walked past me in the street you’d categorize me as privileged and having the world at my fingertips .

        My perspective will never change and I’ll never vote for the party that is partially responsible for my employment situation.

        Now, go on as usual and keep up with your stereotyping .

  10. Family Man says:

    “the election will be close, but with the PLP looking increasingly well positioned to win.”

    And that is why property values will continue to fall.

    • Its me again says:

      Thats great now bermudians can buy houses in their own country.

      What a privilege.

      • Family Man says:

        Yes, with all the money you’re going to be earning from the jobs that leave under the plp.

        What a privilege. You own a depreciating asset, likely with a mortgage and you have no job. Just think of all the time you’ll have to cut the grass and paint the house.

      • PLPNA says:

        Those with money and brains have already converted money to foreign currency – they know PLP will destroy economy & OBA will pick up the pieces in 5 yrs.

  11. Francis says:

    Well they predicted Trump would not win. They predicted that there would be no Brexit. Their predictions suck. Truth is Bermuda will fail with the PLP/UBP in government.

    The OBA has the professionals required. The PLP/UBP does not. Their lot are washed up. It can be dressed up any number of ways but all in all they reallly are not capable – their record speaks for itself. They are like the abusive husband – don’t be the beaten wife that takes the abuser back.

    • Gargoyle Wings says:

      LMBO, are you really trying to make PLP/UBP a thing?

      • The O.B.A. has the professionals required?????????
        So who are they that weren’t in U.B.P.

  12. They forgot to mention that majority of whites vote party while Blacks swing vote and abstain.
    Its not like whites are gonna change their vote, its more like Blacks who swung their vote or abstained last time woke up.

  13. watching says:

    Wow, the first 4 comments look like folks are scared!

    • sandgrownan says:

      Of course we are. The absolute last thing Bermuda needs, any of it, is a return to the economic theft, dishonesty and downright incompetence that led to a huge deficit and debt.

      Look, the OBA isn’t perfect, and their messaging is amateurish at the extreme, and they could have handled “Pathways to Status” and “The Airport” entirely differently, but fundamentally Bermuda is slowly getting back to it’s feet.

      We have more cruise ships, St. Georges being revitalized, hotel developments (plural), business confidence returning and the AC. Tourism in general is on the up.

      The PLP had neither the wit or wisdom to achieve any of that – just the same old tired racial politics.

      Sure we’re concerned, who wouldn’t be?

      • charles d says:

        The PLP in their 14 years: Provided modern facilities to most of the decrepit Court Facilities (Magistrates and Commercial) provided a modernized Police Station and an Eastern Police substation, a new KEMH and an eastern med-clinic, modernized port facilities, a new cruise port terminal at west and east of the island, made way for the Morgan’s Point Development. Provided publically owned PGA Golf course,, modernized the TCD facilities, upgraded schools, new sewage pumping station in the City, modernized the Ferry fleet, etc. That is at least 1 capital project per year.

        • aceboy says:

          Go read the COI. Virtually every PLP project you list is mentioned.

    • Do Right says:

      Marc Bean was unpopular? For promoting Good Governance i suspect? The PLP have a stronger base now under Burt with increased demonstrations as evidence? The OBA is a center-right party? Now I can see why they got it wrong re Brexit, Trump etc etc!!!

      • Bermudian says:

        No Mark been screwed himself with his arrogance.

      • aceboy says:

        Don’t put that guy on a pedestal. That is the same guy who as leader of the PLP made the “10 cents a lick” comment. He is and always will be completely unfit to lead this country.

    • We Need it Now says:

      The Economist typically gets it right. Fear? No. Resignation? Possibly. Kiss your assets goodbye, bye.

  14. Alvin Williams says:

    In regard to politics in Bermuda; I witness something that shows the disaffection Bermudians view this OBA government.
    In a mother’s day lunch the talk centered on the policies of this government with most been of the opinion that the OBA is anti-Bermudian and despite their talk of Bermuda been broke; they have found money for their pet project the America’s Cup while seniors; the schools and Bermuda generally suffers from lack of government funds. The conversation ended with a call to make sure you are register to vote. A quiet storm is gathering that is going to sweep the OBA government out of power.

    • inna says:

      Lunch at Westmeath again Alivn??

    • PLPNA says:

      You think things are bad NOW – mark my words if incompetent/incapable/intolerant/untrustworthy PLP is elected they’ll sweep us right into 3rd world status – emigration/unemployment multiplied beyond belief cuz many local/International businesses goin to drastically cut-back or leave cuz they ain’t having PLP throw em in the toilet again. In 5 years, OBA will be re-elected to clean up PLP mess, just like 2012.

  15. UmJustSaying says:

    We only need 20 working politicians, proficient in mathematics to control our money.
    Fixed term elections so that we hold them accountable and responsible for their actions. They work for the people, we should decide when to go to the polls. To all those registered voters that plan not to vote for ,,none of the above. Go to your polling station and spoil your ballot. They get counted and it shows your dissatisfied with the mess we have been put in by BAD decisions made those we voted for.

  16. PLPNA says:

    The Economist writers will have lots to write about Bermuda if inept PLP/UBP win, and you’all know it won’t be GOOD!!

  17. Bda Gal says:

    That they described the PLP as centre left nullified all that followed.