CSU Predict Below-Average Hurricane Season

April 5, 2019 | 4 Comments

“Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2019, citing the relatively high likelihood of a weak El Niño as a primary factor.

Their website said, “Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently slightly below their long-term average values and are consequently considered an inhibiting factor for 2019 Atlantic hurricane activity as well.

“A weak El Niño has recently developed in the tropical Pacific. CSU anticipates that these weak El Niño conditions are likely to persist through the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.

A look back at Hurricane Gonzalo’s impact on Bermuda in October 2014

“The tropical Atlantic is slightly cooler than normal right now. Colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic provide less fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification.

“They are also associated with a more stable atmosphere as well as drier air, both of which suppress organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development.

“The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 13 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Of those, researchers expect five to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength [Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5] with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

“So far, the 2019 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1969, 1987, 1991, 2002, and 2009. “1987, 1991, 2002 and 2009 had below-average Atlantic hurricane activity, while 1969 was a very active hurricane season,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

“The team predicts that 2019 hurricane activity will be about 75 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2018’s hurricane activity was about 120 percent of the average season. The 2018 season was most notable for Hurricanes Florence and Michael which devastated the Carolinas and portions of the Florida Panhandle, respectively.

A look at Hurricane Nicole’s impact on Bermuda in October 2016

“The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 4, July 2 and Aug. 6,” they added. “The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season – not an exact measure.”

You can read the full story here on Colorado State University.

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Comments (4)

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  1. Real Deal says:

    I hate you Nicole!!!!!

  2. Whistling Frog says:

    Can they also predict the accuracy of the amount of strikes too?

  3. Joe Bloggs says:

    “So far, the 2019 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to …, 1987“

    Wonderful. In case anyone forgot, Hurricane Emily hit us in September 1987. It was the worst hurricane to hit Bermuda in 25 years!

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