Comments on: Column: Burchall On Looking Forward Until 2017

By: The Truth and Nothing but the Truth

The Truth and Nothing but the Truth — Sun, 27 Sep 2015 14:05:25 +0000

Why not, I bet the service is excellent !

By: Politically incorrect

Politically incorrect — Mon, 21 Sep 2015 20:29:29 +0000

The trouble is that now even an increase in population won’t help as there are no jobs for experienced expats to do. The jobs went with them when they left. The landscape of international business has changed forever. Bermuda is on a downward spiral with a few things on the horizon which will cushion the fall but not reverse it. Unless a new industry which needs what Bermuda has to offer is developed we’d better get the fishing rods out.

By: Adam Smith

Adam Smith — Mon, 21 Sep 2015 15:36:14 +0000

ACBDA actually ends in July, 2017. General election must be held by early 2018, but the latest realistic date is December, 2017.

By: Michael Hardy

Michael Hardy — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 15:31:01 +0000

Larry Burchall do you factor in the external war on tax havens?
Your article is an excellent view of the numbers but there is no reference to outside changes in tax system and transparency in many counties..

By: Build a Better Bermuda

Build a Better Bermuda — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 13:26:25 +0000

I don’t blame the PLP for the global crisis, I don’t blame them for the inevitable recession locally. I do blame them for failing to maintain this country’s competitive standing, for implementing ideological based policies that further weakened our economy and sunk us into an a deeper and more protracted recession than we should have otherwise been in if we hadn’t lost as many companies who left our shores for othe juristitcions that weren’t as hostile to them and were being more competitive. They damaged our reputation, and continue to do so with their hostile misinformation electioneering campaign. They failed to make the hard choices when they were needed and now our children are burdened with a debt never before known of in our history. They were operating budget deficits that were edging ever closer to being 50% of government revenues and trying to pass this off as normal. The PLP can talk a good game, but when it comes to actual leadership, they lack the actual abilities to be on the field, much less trying to captain or coach… and the shame is, they actually have people that could, but the are sidelined from any actual responsibilities for the sake of those that can talk.

By: Coffee

Coffee — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 12:39:19 +0000

Don’t eat there again !

By: Keepin' it Real!...4Real!

Keepin' it Real!...4Real! — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 08:51:28 +0000

Nah we can’t blame them for the Global crash just ours…

By: RBKing

RBKing — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 08:46:57 +0000

Ah. the Mythical PLP global crisis. You lot love that story don’t you.

By: frank

frank — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 05:20:34 +0000

What we. Needs. Is. More bermudiana. Working
The none Bermudian only sends their money. Out of. The. Island
If the government. Did their. Job they would. Not be. Here.
Case in point went. For dinner at a. Restaurant on. Reid street there were no Bermudian
Waiters.

By: Thief

Thief — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 04:05:41 +0000

Bermuda was prepared and even profited handsomely during global economic crisises before 2008.

By: Build a Better Bermuda

Build a Better Bermuda — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 03:40:34 +0000

Fairly good analysis, though you predicate much of it on government not reducing expenditures further. And if the government is able to further reduce expenditures, while revenues continue to grow as you have asserted…?

By: Onion Juice

Onion Juice — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 03:03:57 +0000

So do we still blame PLP for this Global economic crisis?

By: Onion Juice

Onion Juice — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 03:01:34 +0000

Tree frog music.

By: Onion Juice

Onion Juice — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 02:59:40 +0000

Sorry, SpongeBob already claimed that title.

By: Hoolieh

Hoolieh — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 02:10:46 +0000

Gracias!
And I agree, government spending levels will be the key!
Smith

P.S. Perhaps they should start immediately with government pension fund terms – move to contributory like the rest of us!

By: Keepin' it Real!...4Real!

Keepin' it Real!...4Real! — Thu, 17 Sep 2015 23:22:44 +0000

In all due respect Larry…you must know, the state of the economic crisis looming Globally…so, I’m saying that you have the right solutions but only in a stable environment out side of Bermuda…its all well and good to plan a fabulous picnic inside your kitchen until you go outside to find that it’s raining.
Also I get a little twitch when you talk about Respop. ..residential population I take it…well I see it like this …as of today we have too many unemployed…and too many unemployable Bermudians now…so I don’t see where more babies will help…so that can only mean we need more “outsiders” to gain residency here to contribute to the wealth and well being of Bermuda…NOT Bermudians. ..people come and people go…only the prepared will survive.

By: Larry Burchall

Larry Burchall — Thu, 17 Sep 2015 20:23:19 +0000

Hoolieh,

You asked, conservative? Optimistic?

Revisit the lead-in and Point Four, the answer lies there.

Between 2001 and 2008, GDP growth averaged 7.5% a year, year-on-year. In that same time, ResPop went from about 63,000 to 68,000. That was healthy and fast growth with the increase in ResPop a major factor.

In 2014, ResPop was reported – by Government – as lower than in 2001 (and, for that matter than in Census year 2000). I have previously, in other articles, said and shown that ResPop changes are connected to GDP changes.

Put the two together.

All the ‘new construction’ that you refer to will help push GDP up, but do remember that 40% of all new construction goes into imported materials. Hence 40% of the ‘big’ spend number for new construction never impacts the local economy.

With ResPop currently about 10% below the level of 2008, getting back to 2008 GDP level, means reliance on the peripherals of inflation, price increases, and cost decreases to get back to the $6.0bn GDP level of 2008.

The only way for solid growth in in GDP is for ResPop is to become an increasing figure.

To help you, I’ll tell you that the facts that I’ve presented show that I’m being optimistic – perhaps even generously optimistic.

But look at the 2017 end game, and think about that. That’s the really important bit.

Larry

By: Hoolieh

Hoolieh — Thu, 17 Sep 2015 18:53:04 +0000

Airport? St. George hotel? Business Spinoff from AC? Always different assumptions…
Mr. Burchall, is your view conservative or optimistic?

Best foot forward, and weakness in the above approach, would be to give a range of possibilities based on different assumptions.

Of course, “No two economists can agree!” They don’t have crystal balls!

Smith

By: Vincent Vega

Vincent Vega — Thu, 17 Sep 2015 17:46:31 +0000

When is redline day for the public pension? I’ve heard it is at least $2 billion underfunded.

By: swing voter

swing voter — Thu, 17 Sep 2015 15:25:38 +0000

ok who will be first to label Capt. Burchall a ‘number bomber’

By: Ryan

Ryan — Thu, 17 Sep 2015 15:13:42 +0000

Great piece—Larry gets it, as usual!