Comments on: OBA, FDM, Independents On Multiple Candidates

By: Thomas Famous

Thomas Famous — Fri, 17 Jan 2025 05:53:31 +0000

Civics 101

there can only be one Opposition party in a Westminster system. Whichever opposition party has the most seats is the opposition party.

By: I do know mathematics

I do know mathematics — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 19:24:35 +0000

Clearly you are not following what’s happening now. There are no strongholds that cannot fail. PLP is caught up in so much scandals not to mention quite a few are not running again so no incumbent in a number of cases. Statistics have shown that PLP do not fair well under pressure. Yes they will likely win the majority in the house but they will lose a lot of seats and they will have to face multiple opposition in the house. Statistics back this

By: X oba voter

X oba voter — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 17:45:56 +0000

Jarion is a clown hiding behind a desk with empty words. Even if no independents or the FDM wasn’t running, it wouldn’t make a difference.

Black Swing voters are only votes that decide elections in Bermuda. Always has been, always will be.

By: Toodle-oo

Toodle-oo — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 17:11:47 +0000

LOL , you think you know how it works (mathematically) but this is politics and ‘strongholds’ were talking about here . I think it was YOU who failed .

By: Probability vs statistics

Probability vs statistics — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 17:06:54 +0000

My math is correct in that I am looking at purely probability. You are talking statistics.

By: Joe Bloggs

Joe Bloggs — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 15:21:25 +0000

Your mathematics assumes that all candidates are to be treated equally. That is an incorrect assumption for Constituency 17. That Constituency is hard-core PLP. Rolf might stand a chance there, but I doubt the OBA would. Certainly, I would not garner many votes in Constituency 17.

By: What math class did you fail?

What math class did you fail? — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 14:19:59 +0000

If there are 100 voters and two people to vote for probability says that each candidate will have a 1 in 2 chance or 50% chance of winning the individual’s vote. Same 100 voters and 4 people to vote for now each candidate has a 1 in 4 chance or 25% chance of winning the individual’s vote. Translation is that each candidate also has a 3 in 4 chance or 75% chance of losing the individual’s vote. Therefore the more options mean that the PLP will have less of a chance of winning the majority. If it’s still not adding up for you let me make it clear in the last election the PLP won because too many seats were uncontested. So clearly less options works in the PLP’s favor. They know that and they called the snap election in hopes that fewer opposition candidates will be ready in time!!!

By: Joe Bloggs

Joe Bloggs — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 14:11:48 +0000

Rolf Commissiong is running against Jason Hayward in Pembroke Central (C. 17). Are you suggesting that others not run in that constituency?

By: Triangle Drifter

Triangle Drifter — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 13:58:22 +0000

Jarion Richardson is correct. Too many candidates will split the vote allowing the PLP to retain seats with minority votes.

There are constituencies where the OBA does not have a hope of winning, and they know it.The OBA should abandon those constituencies to an independent. There are PLP supporters so intoxicated with PLP propaganda that they will never vote OBA even if it were God himself.

Those people who are fed up with the PLP and their lack of performance would however, vote for an independent rather than staying at home. That flipped vote, along with the OBA supporters who would never vote PLP would also vote independent rather than staying at home.

Pick your battles OBA. An independent will work with you some of the time. A PLP member will work with you non of the time.

By: The greater the opposition

The greater the opposition — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 07:48:12 +0000

Clearly the OBA are not prepared for a snap election and they realize that the one election that they won was a fluke! People are just as fed up with the PLP now as they were when the OBA took power. However they also have no faith in the OBA. The vote will be split and this will be at the expense of both PLP and OBA seats and that’s the reality of it. A more reasonable concern is that after the election there will be a minimum of two oppositions in the house. This will make unanimous decisions a rare thing in the house of assembly. Also a reconfiguration of the Senate may be necessary as the current one allows for 5 seats to be held by the controlling party, 3 seats by the opposition and 3 independents appointed by the governor. With multiple opposition parties in the house the allocation of the senate seats may be different.