Busy 2011 Hurricane Season Predicted
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season only ended on November 30 — but yesterday (Dec. 8) the first projections for 2011 were released, with meteorologists predicting another above-average year for tropical cyclones.
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season — which runs between June and November – was hyperactive, the most active season since 2005. It ties with 1995 and 1887 for the third largest number of named storms, with 19, and it also ties with the 1969 season and 1887 for the second largest number of hurricanes, with 12.
Now celebrated Colorado State University researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach are predicting there will be 17 named storms next year, nine of which will strengthen into hurricanes. The 50-year average is 9.6 named storms and six hurricanes.
Statistically, Bermuda is brushed or hit by a hurricane every 2.57 years. In September Government closed public schools for September 20 and 21 in anticipation of a direct hit by Hurricane Igor (pictured). The Bermuda International Airport was shutdown in advance of the storm. Despite initial initial fears that Hurricane Igor would cause immense damage across Bermuda, the once-powerful storm weakened from Category Three strength to Category One before reaching the island and caused relatively minimal structural damage
The last major hurricane to slam into Bermuda was Fabian in 2003. On September 5, Fabian made a direct hit on the island with wind speeds of more than 120 mph. After passing Bermuda, the hurricane veered to the northeast, and became extratropical on September 8. Fabian was the strongest hurricane to hit Bermuda since Hurricane Arlene in 1963. It was the first hurricane to cause a death on the island since 1926. A powerful storm surge associated with the hurricane killed four people crossing the Causeway, devastating and temporarily closing the only link between the main island and St. George’s.
I don’t ever recall them predicting a less than average year of storm activity. Am I the only one who thinks this is statistically wrong? Hype for insurance purposes?
How can you predict Hurricanes?!?….Then in the middle of the season, they revised the prediction…lol!!
First off Fabian hit us in 2003, secondly after the 2004 and 2005 seasons when Florida and New Orleans were badly hit, no one in the US is gonna predict a below average season.
ah its all BS. every year is an “above average year” and almost every year they say the industry “got lucky”… its all marketing to convince people to buy their services, whether its homes insured, insurures insured, reinsurance models, etc etc.
It is far too early to tell anything about this.