Govt. Release Population Projections Report
The Cabinet Office announced today [Feb 26] the release of Bermuda’s Population Projections 2010-2020 Report by the Department of Statistics.
In commenting on the report’s findings, the Premier Craig Cannonier said, “Key findings of the report indicate that Bermuda’s population is projected to decline for the first time with a 4% decrease between 2010 and 2020.
“This is largely due to net emigration [i.e. emigration exceeding immigration] and slowing natural population growth as a result of a declining birth rate. Thus Bermuda’s resident population is likely to drop from 64,129 people in 2010 to 61,566 people in 2020.”
Bermuda’s Population Projections 2010-2020 Report provides an overview of the methodology used to develop the population projections, trends observed for fertility and mortality rates, and future implications for Bermuda. Single-year data tables are also shown for the projected population by sex and age.
The Premier added, “We believe that this information is particularly relevant as the Government as well as our stakeholders will use population projections to aid in future planning and policy formulation for the development of services and programmes.”
“Projections of the total population by five-year age group and sex extend from 1 July 2010 to 1 July 2020. They take into account census and post-2010 patterns to provide a new scenario for the future,” a spokesperson said.
“All users are cautioned to recognize that population projections are not predictions or forecasts. They are illustrations of how the structure, size and characteristics of Bermuda’s population would change if certain assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration are held true over the projection period.
“Therefore users must take into account both the assumptions and limitations noted in the Report. The projections should be used with full recognition that there is no certainty that any of the assumptions will be realized.”
A summary of some additional highlights contained in the report are as follows:
- Bermuda is expected to continue aging substantially:
- The median age of the population that was 41 years in 2010 could climb to 46 years by 2020. Median age is the point where exactly one half of the population is older, and the other half is younger.
- The proportion of seniors (65 years and older) could increase from 14% in 2010 to 20% by 2020.
- The total dependency ratio is projected to rise from 43 in 2010 to 51 by 2020. This means that in 2020 there will be 51 children (0-14 years) and seniors (65 years and older) for every 100 people of working age (15-64 years). The total dependency ratio links the number of people defined as dependents to the working-age population, and therefore estimates society’s capacity to maintain the quality of life for children and seniors per 100 persons aged 15-64.
The Department of Statistics advised that a “summary can only provide a limited view of the extensive information available in the Population Projections Report.”
The 36-page report is below [PDF here]
Bah wah hah hah.
Reality is we started out with Adam and Eve.
So we levelled out.
This is a Saturday Night Live format.
Really.
Been saying it for a few years…we are in a slow but steady decrease in population and would bet we are already close to 60,000….people seem to be leaving all the time….either job loss or cost of living…..
What a dreadful graph, the time-axis is non-linear, the population-axis cut off and the, rather sparse, data points not shown. This is basic high school mathematics. Graphs are key methods for presenting all manner of data and should be drawn correctly to avoid potential misinterpretation. For example, it appears at first sight that there has been a rapid increase in population and then a predicted long period of stability in the future. please can we have a better effort in future from the statistics department.
64k residents and all this mess and mayhem
the seeds of Bermuda’s demise was sown centuries ago
looks like you can’t change ugly
This report reads like a thesis for a Masters degree. A poorly concocted one at that.
One primary question. “Bermudian” is the word used. What about non-Bermudians residing and working here on work permits. Where do they fit in?
As I recall, and a quick check confirms it, Census 2010 only counted 50,500 people who had Bermudian Status, so the other 14,000 in 2010 had to be non-Bermudian.
Are these 14,000 non-Bermudians behaving exactly the same as Bermudians? Or is this 14,000 following its own muses and behaving distinctly differently from Bermudians? Are they, too, going to decline? Are they, too, going to age as Bermudians will age?
If I were the professor receiving this thesis, I’d toss it back at the person who’d wasted my time by asking me to read the damn thing.
So much for an island paradise you wouldn’t want to leave, time Bermudians wised up, it’s a big world out there.
And so much for nasty expats taking the jobs! They’ve all gone back to Connecticut and London thanks to the PLP.
Lights out Ewart.
I can see a less decline in the population as far less Babies are born in the future because
[1] the Cost – having a child is extremly expensive – only 30% of the population today can truly support the Cost!
[2] Less unwed Marriages — yes a lot of Women have finaly realised that it is not worth it especialy if the Fathers don’t have the money to pay.
[3] the economy of Bermuda no longer what it was — those days of having all sorts of free spending money is just about gone.
[4] I acturly believe more people will leave to live in other countries.- the exodus has begun!
The population will be just over 55,000 in the year 2020 – that chart don’t mean a dam thing to me.
mug… someone needs to import more tail. this island is DRY!