BWS: TS Dexter Not A Threat To At This Time
Tropical Storm Dexter is “not a threat to Bermuda at this time”, the Bermuda Weather Service said, with its closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs forecast to be 212 nm to the northwest at 12 pm today [August 4] with the BWS noting that “this system may move closer to Bermuda after this time period depending upon its track.”
Graphic courtesy of the BWS:
The latest forecast from the U.S. National Hurricane Center said, “Dexter remains a sheared tropical storm. Animated Proxy-Visible imagery shows a partially exposed low-level center near the western edge of the convective canopy, a function of moderate shear. With little change in the convective signature or satellite estimates during the past few hours, the initial intensity will stay at 40 kt for this advisory.
“The initial motion continues east-northeastward at 10 kt, with Dexter steered by mid-latitude westerly flow on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge. Model guidance has come into better agreement on the system moving to the northeast or east-northeast for the next few days due to flow from that ridge, with fewer outlier solutions to note. Generally the models are a bit slower than the last cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend, though is still on the faster side of the guidance.
Graphic courtesy of the NHC:
“The moderate shear currently affecting Dexter is expected to increase to over 20 kt by late today, with increasing environmental mid-level dry air. This should limit the potential strengthening to the short term, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, near the model consensus. While strong shear expected in a couple of days would normally cause weakening, there is some chance of a favorable trough interaction causing non-tropical intensification, as shown by the 00Z ECMWF model. Most of the global models, however, do not show the trough phasing with Dexter, though they are showing a stronger extratropical low. The new forecast is just a little higher at 72-96h than the last forecast, and is now below the long-range model consensus. Dexter’s extratropical disposition should be considered fairly uncertain at this time.”
Read More About
Category: All
