BWS: TS Humberto Not A Threat At This Time
Tropical Storm Humberto is “not a threat to Bermuda at this time”, the Bermuda Weather Service said, with its nearest forecast point to Bermuda currently projected to be 541 nm to the SSE at 6pm on Saturday [Sept 27] with the BWS noting that “this forecast is subject to change with the next update.”
Graphic courtesy of the BWS:
The latest forecast from the U.S. National Hurricane Center said, “At 500 PM AST [2100 UTC], the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 54.9 West. Humberto is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph [24 km/h]. A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected over the next several days with a slower forward speed.
Graphic courtesy of the NHC:
“Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph [65 km/h] with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days.
“Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles [75 km] from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb [29.77 inches].”
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I think they need a new term for when all the models predict a storm is very much a threat over the next 5-7 days but we can’t say for certain how much of a threat. I think an “area of activity” we are closely watching is more fitting.
The Klugy Cone of Uncertainty.