Foreign Workforce Effect on GDP
[Written by Sir John Swan and Larry Burchall]
We would like to thank the Bermuda Public for the support that the Regeneration of Bermuda’s Economy initiative has received.
Coming out of all of the comments, suggestions and queries, one area that stood out as requiring further clarification is the aspect of why International Business (IB) and the foreign workforce (white & blue collar) is a vital and integral part of Bermuda’s economy and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
What is Gross Domestic Product?
The monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.
Impact on Economy and GDP
Following is a breakdown of our population and how it impacts on our economy (all figures used are approximate):
In 2009 the death rate was 365 and there were only 635 births. The birthrate also continues to decrease. According to the recently released 2010 Census, the Bermudian population remains static, not moving.
Throughout the next set of points, it is important to keep in mind that our population growth is static and the effect that this has:
- Bermudian workforce is a maximum of 27,000
- Historically, any time our National Workforce (NWF) count falls below 40,000, our economy is not viable
- At 40,000 NWF count Bermudians comprise 27,000 and non-Bermudians 13,000
- In 2011 our NWF dropped below 37,000 and we are unsure of the figure for 2012
We must increase our employment level to 40,000 from its current decreasing level in order to make the economy viable. We need foreigners to fill the gap.
In 2009 and 2010 foreign worker manpower declined by an average of 4.5% each year and continues to decline. This has a direct effect on the Bermudian.
As the foreigner worker leaves, the economy begins to shrink which translates into less foreign currency earnings and less jobs for Bermudians.
The foreigner in the international sector creates jobs for Bermudians at a certain level and pay bracket. If the IB sector diminishes/leaves, the job that the Bermudian enjoyed at a certain level is now gone.
Bermudians are likely to find work but not at the level they had previously enjoyed. A Bermudian may only take a lower level job if they are forced to meet their financial commitments. It is difficult to tell someone who has been working in the international sector that they now have to work in the local sector for half the pay they used to get. This means that the Bermudian’s standard of living falls.
Graphical Representation
Below is a graphical representation of the close link between growth in Bermuda’s economy and the rise and fall in the guest worker component of Bermuda’s national workforce (NWF) – [Click to enlarge graph to full size]
Between 1996 and 2010, the chart shows that the high / low difference in Guest Workers is 13,033 / 7,748 for a high/low difference of 5,285. The high / low difference in Bermudians is 28,881 / 26,247 for a high/low difference of 2,634.
The chart shows that rises and falls in GDP per capita follows the rise and fall in the number of Guest Workers, many of whom are IB workers. The very small rises and falls in the Bermudian component do not have any noticeable impact.
International Business (IB) brings in $0.85 of every dollar that enters Bermuda’s economy. IB and its direct supporting services provide employment for about one third (11,400) of Bermuda’s national workforce. As far back as 1996, Bermuda’s GDP and GDP per capita grew only because of the influx of human capital in the form of Guest Workers.
Bermuda’s GDP and GDP per capita rises when imported human capital rises, and falls when imported human capital leaves. Therefore, since the Bermudian population is static and cannot fill all the positions necessary to maintain a viable NWF count, we must increase the amount of imported human capital to stimulate the economy, give Bermudians the level of employment they desire and stop the decline in our standard of living.
This continues to be a collective effort by all Bermudians and we need your support, comments and ideas. For further information or to express your comments email us at economy@challengerbanks.bm or visit us on Regeneration of Bermuda’s Economy.
- Sir John Swan and Larry Burchall
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Articles that link to this one:
- ‘Getting Back to A Viable Economy’ : Bernews.com | November 4, 2011
Why don’t we host software companies?
We should have computer programing courses at the College and the high schools.
This can be our 3rd pillar.
The Bermuda College and most of Bermuda’s high schools do have courses in or teach computer programming.
More and more computer programming work is being shifted to India and China. These countries have a vast supply of software engineers and computer programmers.
Also, for the money it costs to hire computer programmer/software engineer in Bermuda, you could hire 6 people in India or China.
Bahaaa! Are you suggesting our Bermudian talent can compete with the programming genius of India and China? Get a grip dude!
Bermudians can do anything they want if they turn on their collective minds. Problem with PLP is that they are continuing to education our children like the UBP did. And look what has happened to our human capital. PLP cannot raise is up!!
but because John Swan says its ok and now having tea with the OBA we are supposed to believe in his plan, but he was the longest serving premier to date under the UBP banner the he now denounces for the the OBA. You all are big bucks opportunists all.
In the recent exam results published by the Min Ed, and announced by Jennifer Smith, out of 350 children 7 took an IT exam. One “passed”, however with a grade below C.
So, zero out of 350 children came out of school with an IT qualification that would be accepted in the workplace.
There are a number of half truths in this attempt to analyse data. The most obvious is the statement repeated in all the articles so far:
“Historically, any time our National Workforce (NWF) count falls below 40,000, our economy is not viable”
This is contradicted by the “graph” (table actually) the very authors include in this article. In only one year since 1996 has the NWF exceeded 40,000 people and yet “the economy” has boomed for the vast majority of those years. Beyond this glaring contradiction, there is no substantiation for the 40,000 number.
Who made this number up?
Why?
Given the lack of local population growth and the “need” to fill posts with foreigners working for IB could the magical 40,000 number be derived from a business goal to build millions of dollar worth of condos for foreigners on the outskirts of the city? (among other big business goals)
I could say much more but suffice to say locals need to be extremely wary of people taking advantage of short term circumstances and the anxieties the common person experiences in order to push their long term agenda (serious $, mainly for themselves ).
It is fascinating that most people seem unaware of the basic definition of what an economy is, yet we are jumping to means to “stimulate” an economy. There is no such reality as stimulating an economy but it sure sounds good to anxious people.
Lastly, something to ponder: If Bermuda dollars are worthless outside of Bermuda, why are they worth something in Bermuda?
When is the last time you tried to spend a Bermuda dollar outside of Bermuda?
Come on; put your brain in gear before you start banging on your key board. Without US dollars coming into our economy our money will eventually be devalued as we will have no US dollers or foreign currency to back up our dollars and inflation will soar. Your fancy SUV will cost BD$ 150,000 or more and your grocery bill will probably triple.
Do you now see why Bermuda dollars are worthless outside of Bermuda?
It would seem you misread my question but alas you answered it nonetheless.
Sorry Future, I guess I did
uh, i think the 40k workforce number is because that is what it was at peak gdp. A lesser number of workers cannot sustain that output level, and since there is a limited pool of bermudians, the gap must be filled with workers from elsewher.
The authors speak to a “viable economy”, not peak GDP. “The economy” has been viable for all those years with less than 40,000 workers.
The Future:
While the economy may be able to sustain itself there would be no growth which would in turn create a negative feedback loop leading the less and less business etc coming to the island. Are you interested in setting up a business where growth and population demographics are stagnant or declining? Just asking….
Also second question with a seriously aging population and a slowing birth rate how do you think we will pay for your government retirement benefits/healthcare? The fact of the matter is that our dependency ratio is about to explode here meaning the amount of money which a worker will have to pay to cover retirees’ benefits is going to grow at a serious rate, making it almost impossible to keep taxes at there current rates. One of the ways to counter that is to bring in foreigners who can fund the system via the taxes we collect from them.
There are many different angles to this argument unfortunately in your haste to dismiss the analysis you have only focused on one small detail. While 40k may not be the magic number the general argument of the article is still valid – a decline in expats/population = a decline in GDP = a decline in government tax revenues.
It is western folly that growth is required to sustain a thing. If you have a garden, must that garden produce more and more food to be considered successful? With a stable population, a stable income will create a stable and predictable future. It is the chasing of “growth” that will undo any economy eventually.
I would be very interested in setting up a business that would meet it goals and do so year in and year out. Making growth a goal would mean unless you become the next Walmart, you are out of business.
Configuring an economy To manage the payment of govt. retiree benefits and healthcare is a trap. It will only lead to the same thing you are pointing out is a problem! The debt obligations are beyond what can be funded by visiting workers, and why should it be anyway? Math doesn’t lie and the math says we have an unsustainable situation unless we change it.
God forbid we might actually have to live with less.
I’d take that over prostituting the yet to be born with a pipe dream that foreigners will create so much wealth tha it will fund their future.
Oh, and by implication, this same article is saying Bermudians cannot create wealth in any significant measure. It falls from the plates of foreign workers.
I haven’t dismissed the argument. I’ve questioned it and pointed out assumptions which are entirely unsubstantiated. And they remain so. Let’t not gloss over that. Declining govt tax revenues would not neccesarily be a bad thing. Stability in revenues might be something you haven’t considered.
Economic Growth is “Western Folly” ?
I’m interested in this idea of “Western Folly”. Do you have the impression that other parts of the world would be happy with economic contraction? Do you think the economies of China, India, The Middle East, Russia, Australia, for example, have contracted over the past few decades?
Japan has been in contraction for a decade or so. Do you think Japan likes and encourages this, or would Japan rather have some growth?
Also, there is no such thing as ‘stability’ in the real world. The economy is either growing or contracting. It’s obvious to most of us that growth is the preferable outcome.
I didn’t say “Economic Growth is Western Folly”.
I said It is western folly that growth is required to sustain a thing.
Your counter argument only references contraction and you suggest this is the only alternative to growth. Thankfully the laws of physics and biology do not bend to errant thinking.
If perpetual growth is required to sustain Bermuda, what is your vision of this country for say, 50 years from now? How many expats will be needed to “maintain” (grow?) the good life here?
People are not seeing the solution being presented will trash the goal they are after and rather than being an exit strategy from the current madness, will only entrench us further in it. Start a food garden.
You said that is it “western folly that growth is required”. So, ergo, you contend that growth is western folly. In other words, you are saying that growth is unnecessary, undesirable, and culturally specific to the west. In all these things you are wrong.
Contraction is effectively the only option to growth. There is no practical way of planning for, and obtaining, 0% growth over any extended period. You either have growth or contraction. With the effects of inflation (even small amounts), a 0% change in gross income equates to a reduction in value. So, if you don’t plan for growth, over time the value of your income will fall.
You can take whatever dumb position on economics that you want. Everyone with skills with economic value (i.e. those who have options) will over time migrate to places where those skills can be rewarded.
I’d argue that work permit term limits are a Bermudian folly.
Instead of “ergo” you should have written error. Nothing you have written represents my assertions but only you are responsible for that.
Inflation has nothing to do with growth if you understand the real basis for inflation (increase in money supply relative of assets and thus decrease in value of existing money). The inflation argument does also raise another unanswered question from my growing list:
what is the vehicle that ties the Bermuda dollar 1:1 to the US dollar always and forever?
This must be looked at within the massive unprecedented creation of dollars on the US side of that equation…and the requisites devaluation of Bermuda dollars unless a proportional amount of fictions money is created on this side.
Rider: this is not a complaint, merely an example.
I am a guest worker. I have a spouse and one child. Our family spends around 85-90% of our income in Bermuda. Here is a list of some of the people I contribute to the salary of:
The teachers and staff of the private school I send my child to (they do a great job); The drivers and staff of the buses and ferries (They are, despite bad press, a hugely friendly and welcoming group); Taxi Drivers; Supermarket staff; Belco staff; Digicel Staff; BTC staff; Cablevision staff; HSBC staff; Gas station employees; Restaurant staff; Clothing stores staff; the staff of the gymnasium I am a member of; the doctors and nurses and dentists and hygienists my health insurance helps pay for; the staff of BF & M and Colonial through whom I insure my car and home contents; the guys that crew the container ships that bring everything here; Police Officers, Fire Officers, the guys that fix the walls and the roads, and all other public servants my taxes help to provide wages for.
Oh – and my landlord’s mortgage, sailboat, house in the US, SUV, vacations and general affluent lifestyle.
I also work around 30 hours per month voluntarily in the community, for which I receive no pay. I have no criminal record; I pay my bills on time, give to charity and abide by the laws and conventions of Bermuda. I work hard and make money for my employer. I am very easy to get rid, as all my employer has to do is not re-apply for my work permit. No severance pay, no union issues, just an airplane ticket.
I am not special, there are thousands like me.
If I leave, that’s around $150k plus 360 hours community work per annum no longer in the Bermudian economy.
If thousands of us leave….well, you do the math.
You forgot the taxes which are automatically garnished from your pay cheque.
It doesn’t make a difference to some.
You are an evil foreigner who is trying to steal lour jobs and land.
Well that’s what many would like to for others to believe. They are no different than the Tea Partiers with their fear mongering.
People like that just hate anyone different, but most of all they hate BDA as they would rather see the downfall of our island.
you probably have a UK passport, dont you?
I have the same UK passport in which all Bermudians are entitled.
Got a point to with the query?
You will probably use it to exploit that same foreigner’s country when your government has chased every last IB out of here and all we’re left with is people robbing and killing each other. Hypocrite.
Maybe you should learn how to read mate…
Not sure how I am a hypocrite when I am acknowledging the need for gust workers in BDA…
But hey maybe you see something I don’t…
@ joonya:I think you really need to go back and re-read ‘tired of nonsense’s” comments. Clearly you have misunderstood what was said. It pays to read to the end before you comment.
Thank you March Hare! You just said what every ex-pat thinks every time we hear a Bermudian b-tch and complain about us being here! It’s getting old and ex-pats are getting tired of it! Keep treating us poorly and we will pack up and leave – as many of us are already doing. Let me make this clear to all of the “b-tchers and moaners” out there – - WE CAN UP AND LEAVE WHENEVER WE WANT and we’ll take our hard-earned money with us!
@ March Hare/Exactly;
Unfortunately too many Bermudians do not understand this. I have tried to explain this to my fellow Bermudians, but although many realise this, there are many that just don’t get it. I’m hoping that the majority of Bermudians understand this and I guess we will find out just how many do understand it after the next general election!
Please stick around as Bermuda needs you more than the detractors realise.
Its one thing when an expat takes a highly qualified job in Bermuda. Its another when an expat takes a job that the majority of bermudians can do like waitressing, cashier, retail sales and the list goes on. These jobs should be reserved for Bermudian’s but to top it off these expats I’m mentioning go to the employer and say, “Hey I’ve got cousins, sisters, brothers, aunties, uncles that can do the other bermudians jobs that work here also.” Then the next thing is 10 Bermudians are made redundant and 10 foreigners take their place. I could give a squat if these expats leave cause all their easy-earned money gets wired back to the rest of their thousand relatives in their overpopulated country because they don’t believe in birth control and our economy suffers for it.
Bermudians don’t want the job, that’s half the problem, the feeling of entitlement is sickening. the expats show up on time, work hard and do not mice off. I am always surprised when I meet a Bermudian working in the service industry and even more surprised when they are “on the ball”. Go to any construction site, landscaping company, restaurant etc. and ask how the expats see their Bermudian co-workers you’d probably get a laugh.
Bermuda needs birth control more than, as you put it “their overpopulated country” because if you don’t know who your father is…you don’t know who your sister may be…inna tommy.
Tommy….get real. I read your two first sentences.
Means sh%t. We have addressed this hundreds of times here and on other boards and forums.
They want the top dollar jobs with no clue as how to do it/them.
Too damn lazy to work and it seems demeaning to them. So all your cousins come in all dressed up after a long week and you serve them. You don’t wanna be there. They look at you like…..’this is all you can do do’…..
Go figure.
It’s an Onion field soon to be turned into Lillies for the Queen in April.
I need a rum…………………………
I agreed with you until you up until ”get’s wired back” then it got a little racist…. But yet, it is true. As many ”visiting” workers there are many of them transfer A LOT of their money back home to the people and countries they care about.
Tommy chong, your comments are outright racist. You are a racist idiot.
Tony you’re the idiot since what I’m typing has nothing to with a race since I have not mentioned anything about physical characteristics. Terry and ooops… are the ones spewing their prejudices about how lazy Bermudians are and I’m sure that they are not pointing at Portuguese or British Bermudians. Its obvious they meant black Bermudians but I’m the racist one. huh? But thats alright because you probably share their racist views but are not racist kind of like a Christian who sins every day of the week besides Sunday. I’m just stating the facts that are obvious to any local that there were businesses that had a full bermudian staff now only have one Bermudian working there while there are thousands without a job. Maybe when someone comes to your place of employment and says I can work more hours for less than tony and you lose your job you will change your tune.
Terry not everyone in Bermuda is as lucky as you to waste their days littering this site with the trash you put up. It’s obvious you don’t have to much work to do but insist on calling others who work harder than you lazy. You also most likely get paid more to do less while criticizing others who do more to receive less. Terry why don’t you tell this ferry tale of the lazy Bermudian to the people who lost their job because they refused to be treated like a slave. The price of living in Bermuda is higher for a local than an expat especially when the expat is from a country where the Bermuda dollar gives them such a high return that they live like kings back at home. You should follow your own advice and get real and stop using the ignorant slang you use on your post. I’m sure you really don’t talk that way and neither do the majority of Bermudians despite the asinine belief that you and other condescending fools share.
As long as there are employers that share the same stereotypical prejudice of all Black Bermudians being lazy unemployment will keep growing. What do you think will happen when the unemployed Bermudians outnumber the employed bermudians? The answer to that question lies in other’s history like Cuba & Jamaica that have gone through this already.
And for the jobs that remain – To be replaced by out of work ex pats seeking wages free of significant taxes..and the beat goes on…
ok, March Hare (above letter) pretty much covered it. we don’t need charts or any other statistical information, this is exactly what happens with the international business worker. Bermuda pay attention, this is not a trick or treat! This is capitalism and most Bermudians believe in it!! We can’t have it both ways.
We’re leaving as well and our monthly spend is nearly $3500.00.Not much when you think only of us but like the others said above…multiply that by 1500 and you bie’s have a big problem.
Gues$t Worker – are you still here?
We most likely will have a problem, however, have you not heard, the world has a problem ???
You bitter, departing Guest workers should worry more about the state of play in your own countries and leave the false concerns that litter these blogs to us soon to be suffering Bermudians..
We have lived way above our means for decades, become overly dependent on those that would deny funds to their own faltering countries economies and yet we seem surprised that companies would depart our shores seeking ways to retain as much of their earnings as possible.
Nothing is promised and we will have to shift our priorities or forever have to dance to the gloating beat of a selfish drummer…
Ole: You seem to be more concerned about making sure the guest workers leave than you are about your own country.
Ok then how about we turn our golf courses into lily fields or would you prefer poppy fields? So tell me what other type of economy should we develop? The above has worked before.
Thanks John Swan and Larry Burchall for your article. Very informative. Bigger thanks to March Hare for breaking it down like you did for all to understand a bit better how it really is translated. At the end of the day, time will be the true test, however, if we can take steps now to prevent a seemingly imminent major deterioration of the economy, perhaps we should try to work together and stop bashing one another. Bermudian against expat, constant political bundering, gang warfare, and the list goes on……
Are you serious! In this day and age the work force is a global employment. People travel the world over to find jobs or relocate to different countries. Why should Bermuda be different in a global economy. Money earned and money spent all have the same value no mater where you live. What about the Bermudains that are located in other countries. They are adding value to that country and sending there hard earned money back to Bermuda to support their families. Expats that live here have to eat, transport and spend in this country. Lets face it. IB are not all to blame for foreign workers taking locals jobs. I know a few local business who don’t want to deal with Bermudians for lack of work ethics. So are we to blame or the expats that gets the jobs? We need them just as much as they need us. It goes hand in hand. If you work hard and secure your job then you wouldn’t have any thing to fear. I feel that most of these people that complain about expats probably can’t keep a job and need some one or some thing to blame. Not saying that for all cases but 50% of the time its true. Think about it people. “International” Business needs international workers. If IB leaves Bermuda what do we have to sustain ourselves and our life styles? Some one please answer that!
Yes, I’m quite serious! Though me issue is not with IBs my issue is with the restaurants, the retail shops, the janitorial services, the grocery stores and the list goes on. There are many unemployed Bermudas who can stock shelves, take a food order, use a vacuum cleaner but will not get a job because employers have pulled strings to get foreign workers these positions. As for all the living expenses mentioned, many of these workers will go in on paying for a second hand car they will carpool in so they are not helping the automobile sales here. They flood the docks on the weekends with there nets catching every fish in site big, small or endangered to eat during the week with their economy size bag of rice brought in from their country. This does not help our environment or our produce industry. The employers of these people get them the most affordable housing that has been held for them by the employers landlord friends. This does not help our affordable housing crisis and since these workers jam pack themselves in apartments that are not made to accommodate that many people and share the rent this does not help the economy either. I may be seen as generalizing but I have not mentioned who I’m pointing fingers at so like the late great bob sung, “Who the cap fit let them wear it.” Maybe Dale Butler can shed some light on the subject if its not to much of a personal topic.
Guest Workers are needed. But, Bermudians need jobs as well. I believe, more jobs need to be reserved for the born and raised Bermudian. As many Bermudians that need jobs, and that are being ”made redundant” are as many jobs that need to be reserved for Bermudians. Bermudians should be able to afford living in their own country. This is not to say that every Bermudian should have the job of their choice with the only qualification being their place of birth; but that Government should have a set percentage reserved in the workplace, especially in such jobs as hospitality, or any job that may be the ”face of Bermuda” to visitors. I believe government should exhaust their search for a fitting BERMUDIAN in coveted higher paying jobs. The fact is, and I know this because I’ve seen it first hand, that: in the higher paying jobs, the Buisness men, the special qualifications, when he is in a position of power or control if he happens to have a friend from back home he will higher him, rather then a Bermudian; more than likely. Similar patterns have I seen in ”visitors” working in such jobs as a resturant or housekeeping; where ONE person was hired for the job and in less than five years she was able to find ways to get her cousin brother sister and mother into Bermuda, all but one now has citizenship; with only two speaking moderate english. Bermudians should be able to live and work in Bermuda without having to be underpaid and struggling, part of the reason for this is lack of education especially in the youth (that I see as Government and Parents at fault) BUT when an educated young person comes home from university degree in hand and cannot find a job while foreign workers FILL the spot in which they went to school for, and achieved a degree that says that they can do it; that is disgustingly wrong. That is where I believe government should step in and figure out how to let their Bermudian live and work in Bermuda.
Yes point taken. I feel you on the family and friends sliding in. There should be some quota or percentage set. As for college kids I do feel for them as the work force theses days highly depend and look at qualifications and experience. Certain industries want people that have worked positions for numbers of year and know what there doing. But this is not just a Bermuda issue. Its a global issue. If you look at the news job search is very difficult and we are no different bermudian or expat. But if we keep badgering IB then thousands of jobs that bermudians have will go away. Yes Bermuda Gov needs to find a way for us to coexist but telling them to pack up and leave will send this island down the drain for sure. More international business means more money for the island. Buildings being built, housing filled, transportation increased and jobs for Bermudians. May not be an exec job but they need secretaries, admins, interns etc.
I have heard the arguments about the Bermudian worker attitude from the time I came here but to my mind the issue has always been the over inflated and over heated economy. The cost of living is too high in many ways for a Bermudian with an average skill set to afford to live a comfortable dignified life working at many of the non IB jobs.
When the cost of living falls certain jobs may become more appealing as you can make a living on them. The cost of living was and still is, simply too high for a Bermudian to work as a waitress and two other blue collar jobs, take care of families and have any quality of living. No surprise some are so surly Bermudians in those positions.
Thanks March Hare
I think your illustration is much more effective than the article above.
It might be worth adding that not only does Bda benefit from the $ that you and the many other foreign workers pour into the economy (and volunteer time in your case) but also training opportunities for us – the Bda’ns.
I learn every day from foreign workers that gained experience in other jurisdictions. This transfer of skills and knowledge makes our local workforce much more valuable/competitive.
Where does Bermudians spend money….I consistently hear how the foreigners spends
money in Bermuda,as if Bermudians don’t spend money in Bermuda. We welcome foreigners as equal team members, but what I don’t appreciate is foreigners who come to Bermuda and see themselves as the almighty, looking down on Bermudians.
somebody, please explain to me… my family and I had an early dinner at the Southampton tonight. why was I attended by 2 Indians and 1 Canadian there?!? the Canadian worker tells me that she chose to work at Fairmont so that she gets well-respected experience in order to open her own hotel someday back in Canada… (can’t a Bermudian have that kind of ambition?!? i would have loved to be explained the menu and local fish by a Bermudian, but they were nowhere to be seen except for the bartender, the doorman and the concierge.
Deep thought! Thanks for contbruitnig.