Possible Gale/Storm Force Winds This Week
Noting that “a large degree of uncertainty remains,” the Bermuda Weather Service advised that later this week we may have “gale force nearing storm force winds” and a “severe weather watch/warning is likely for Thursday and could be extended into Friday and a Gale Warning on Friday.”
In their forecast discussion, the BWS said, “Near the surface, a low pressure is expected to spill into the Atlantic stemming from a frontal wave over the US east coast.
“This low is expected to race north-northeastward while simultaneously deepening. Model consensus continues to reduce pressures from 1000mb to the mid- 960’s just 18 hours later meeting the criteria for bombogenesis before the 24-hour mark.
“The rapidly intensifying low will extend a cold front through the southwest and quickly approach Bermuda which will be in the warm sector of passing areas to the north. The baroclinic cyclone continues to look rather impressive on and models continue to align quite well with intensity, shape, and position though subtle differences. Expect the approach of a low pressure system bring heavy rain, showers, and rapidly strengthening winds.
“Wind data continues to suggest gale force nearing storm force winds [34-47kts] with the potential for hurricane force gusts nearing 75 kts. It should be noted that the UK and GFS bring storm force winds very close bordering the marine area and as such the forecast reflects this. The timing of the front’s passage has remained Thursday afternoon [near 18Z].
“Thereafter, expect gale force winds to last into Friday as the low continues to deepen and move off to the northeast. Of significance as well, in the 1000-500 thickness analysis, expect the 540 thickness line to dip into the area on Friday in the wake of the system.
“This along with inducies show rather conducive conditions for hail and very heavy showers and may warrant the extension of the severe weather warning. Note, a large degree of uncertainty remains here.
“Expect temperatures to plunge following Friday with a minimum temperature nearing 55F. Seas respond to the progression of the system building 20-30 feet and becoming hazardous. Extreme caution should be taken near the coasts as this system will create very dangerous surf.
“Friday sees the gradual exit of the low, though remaining wet and rather windy with winds gradually easing from gale force strength. A severe weather watch/warning is likely for Thursday and could be extended into Friday and a Gale Warning on Friday.”
