Modeling: Worst Case Scenario Of 700 Deaths

April 9, 2020 | 8 Comments

Modelling numbers suggest that in a worst case scenario over 700 Bermudians could die from this virus, Premier David Burt said as he issued a stark warning about the potential impact of Covid-19.

Speaking at last night’s press briefing, the Premier said, “There is in some cases a clear inability to appreciate the gravity of this situation.

“Let me try to put this into perspective for everyone in Bermuda. As part of my briefing with the Ministry of Health today I was able to review the modelling numbers which had been received and it indicates very plainly and simply that if we do not follow the rules which are in place now or the rules which may be necessary to implement in the future, the estimation is that over 700 Bermudians can die from this virus.

“This is not an error. I am not saying this to scare anyone. These are the facts and we have seen this take place across the world, where they have seen their inability to flatten the curve. In Bermuda, we have acted early. However, if we are not taking this seriously, more Bermudians will die.


“This is the worst case scenario. However, it is a reminder of how important it is to follow the rules, and to follow the regulations, which have been laid out. They were put in place to keep that number as low as possible and every exemption requested, every curfew broken, every quarantine defied, represents a greater risk that we will realize that number of people succumbing to this disease.

“Part of my briefing with the Ministry of Health today, I was able to review the modeling numbers which had been received, and it indicates very plainly and simply that if we do not follow the rules which are in place now, or the rules which will be necessary to implement in the future, the estimation is that over 700 Bermudians can die from this virus.

“This is not an error, and I am not saying this to scare anyone. These are the facts, and we have seen this take place across the world. They have seen their inability to flatten in the curve. In Bermuda, we have acted early.”

“Now is the time for all of us to stop and think: am I prepared to sacrifice the life of someone close to me for something that really doesn’t matter? We need a reality check as a country because this is no longer something that we’re watching on the news about other countries. It is here and Bermudians have died.

“I am not expecting that we will have the worst case scenario in Bermuda, and that is the reason why we have taken the measures we have, when we took them, before there was evidence of community transmission but it remains a fact that if in the future there is a change to this and if we do not follow the rules, we can find ourselves back where we are right now. And I’m sure for our economy and for our country, none of us want that.

“This is a life and death situation. Your actions can possibly kill others and you could be potentially spreading the disease, as we recognize there are asymptomatic carriers, from one person to the next.

“While you might not be impacted, the next person you see, a friend, a cousin, or a loved one that could be impacted and their families could also be impacted. So it is urgent that we are all incredibly responsible at this time,” the Premier added.

The Premier’s words came after he announced that another person has died,  marking the third Covid-19 related death in the island.

The global death toll continues to climb, with over 85,000 deaths worldwide, as the virus has spread all around the world, affecting nations big and small.

San Marino — one of the few nations in the world smaller than us with only 33,000 people — has already recorded 34 deaths, while Andorra, which is slightly larger than us with 78,000 people, has 23 deaths thus far, and the nation with the most recorded deaths in the United States, which has lost close to 15,000 people so far.

The modeling for the larger nations estimates that their death tolls could be tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands, with the United States coronavirus task force issuing a grim prediction that some 100,000 to 240,000 U.S. residents could die due to the virus.

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Comments (8)

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  1. Letsbereal says:

    Before this got here, Even after this got here we all thought we was just going to die anyways from this virus, People live and die everyday why are we acting like this isnt a normal thing life doesnt live for ever the world does. It’s always somthing bigger then what it is.

  2. LOL says:

    The models have all been proven wrong and overestimate the number of deaths by as much as 400%. The main problem is the data being used is not correct. USA data claims any death is caused by the coronavirus if the virus is present, even if the person dies from cancer, a brain hemorrhage, a heart attack, etc.

    • Mike Hind says:

      Ok. Let’s say that’s true.

      That means the worst case scenario is around 175 people.
      Is that ok with you?

    • JB says:

      The models have been proven wrong… due to people being locked down and staying at home. If everyone did whatever they wanted, then the models would be proven right. I’m not sure how you think that the models being wrong is a bad thing.

  3. Paul says:

    Bermuda’s confirmed case fatality rate is 7.69% according to Real Clear Politics. The UK’s is 11.69%. If 15% of Bermuda’s population were confirmed with Covid-19, the total death estimate is a simple but very sad calculation. KEMH’s Dr Ashton quoted about 350 deaths – less than the Premier, but Biblically high! My guess is if there are any doubters after 100 deaths they would wake up and do everything they can to prevent further community spread.

  4. Yeah right says:

    Modeling is pure conjecture as it is proven wrong at everything from investing to risk and now scaremongering over pandemic. it is what it is.

  5. D says:

    But according to WHO (World Health Organization) and CDC (United States’ Center for Disease Control) guidelines, if someone was diagnosed as ‘having COVID-19’ and then died from ‘something else’—whether that be heart failure or a car accident—it would be counted as a COVID-19 death. This is foolish at best and insidiously harmful at worst. Is the Bermuda Gov following these CDC / WHO guidelines?

    Furthermore, a number of people in the US and the UK are being counted as COVID-19 infections even though they are not having tests, swabs, or x-rays done on them. Doctors are giving them a one-over and diagnosing them with COVID-19, adding that number to the official talley, and then sending those folks home to self-quarantine.

    Is Bermuda Gov enacting such draconian measures under these dubious methods? If so, this situation—from economic, social, legal standpoints—is absolutely shocking. Fear mongering and heavy-handed penalties being justified by shaky methods

  6. Herb adderly says:

    So you think we will get 10000 cases or 15% of the population

    No other country has come anywhere near that percentage of population being infected and more than likely never will

    If we were to get 1000 cases even that as a percentage is going to be way outside other countries numbers

    Most numbers run around 5 to 10% death rate which would be 50 to 100 that in itself would be tragic for our country

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