NOAA Predicts ‘Near-Normal’ Hurricane Season

May 27, 2023 | 0 Comments

NOAA forecasters have predicted “near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year” with a ”range of 12 to 17 total named storms” of which “5 to 9 could become hurricanes.”

A statement from the organisation said, “NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.

“NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms [winds of 39 mph or higher]. Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes [winds of 74 mph or higher], including 1 to 4 major hurricanes [category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher]. NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.”

A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. [Image credit: NOAA]

NOAA 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook May 2023_1

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season.

“After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin. Those conditions include the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea which creates more energy to fuel storm development. These factors are part of the longer term variability in Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development — known as the high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes — which have been producing more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.”

A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. [Image credit: NOAA]

NOAA 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook May 2023_2

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