Acrisure’s 2026 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook
Acrisure Re released their 2026 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook today, saying that “early indicators suggest the upcoming 2026 season is likely to experience activity hovering just below average.”
A spokesperson said, “Following a slightly above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that produced four major hurricanes – including three Category 5 storms and the devastating impacts of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica – early indicators suggest the upcoming 2026 season is likely to experience activity hovering just below average.
“While North Atlantic sea surface temperatures [SSTs] are not expected to reach the record-breaking levels observed in recent years, they remain above long-term averages across much of the basin, particularly in the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, forecasters anticipate the El Niño-Southern Oscillation [ENSO] will develop into the warm El Niño phase through the peak of hurricane season, with several models indicating the potential for a notably strong event. These conditions typically increase upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic basin, creating a less favorable environment for hurricane development.
“The combination of warmer-than-average Atlantic SSTs, a projected El Niño pattern, and other evolving atmospheric and oceanic factors points toward a marginally below-average hurricane season overall.”
“Despite the seasonal outlook, hurricane forecasting remains inherently uncertain, with a broad range of potential outcomes still possible. Based on current data and prevailing Atlantic and Pacific Ocean conditions, Acrisure Re’s internal forecasting model currently projects approximately 13 named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, compared to the long-term average of 14.”
“Intraseasonal variability and shorter-term atmospheric patterns will continue to influence when and where storms develop throughout the season,” said Ming Li, Global Head of Cat Modeling at Acrisure Re. “Although overall activity may trend closer to average, elevated ocean temperatures in key regions mean the potential for rapid intensification and impactful landfalls remains a significant concern.”
A spokesperson added, “Acrisure Re will continue to closely monitor evolving meteorological conditions and provide timely insights and updates to support clients in their preparation, response, and risk management strategies throughout the hurricane season.”
The 2026 Acrisure Re Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook follows below [PDF here]:
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