NOAA Predict ‘Below-Normal’ Hurricane Season
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] Climate Prediction Center says the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season “will likely be below-normal”, with a 70% likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms.
For the hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 – November 30, NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms [winds of 39 mph or higher], of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes [winds of 74 mph or higher], including zero to 2 major hurricanes [Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher].
NOAA said, “While a below-normal season is likely [70 percent], there is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.”
“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., referring to the 1992 season in which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew – a Category 5 Major Hurricane that devastated South Florida.
Graphic courtesy of NOAA
“The main factor expected to suppress the hurricane season this year is El Niño, which is already affecting wind and pressure patterns, and is forecast to last through the hurricane season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“El Niño may also intensify as the season progresses, and is expected to have its greatest influence during the peak months of the season. We also expect sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic to be close to normal, whereas warmer waters would have supported storm development.”
NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
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It just takes one…
I aint taking no chances, its tropical storm ahh no its a Hurricane.
Thank you sir, may I ‘ave another.
Wasn’t it meant to be quiet last year????
It was – 8 named storms vs an average of 12 over the last few decades. A “quiet” or “inactive” period refers to the number of storms developing in the Atlantic basin in general, not how many make landfall or cause damage. Every year we should be prepared for a hit no matter what these forecasts say.
It WAS quiet last year!! Remember? Very quiet season as far as numbers go. That’s why you (YOU JD, and those who think like you) need to Prepare yourself for just that ONE that hits YOU at home. At night. Out of the blue. In a quiet season. Be safe, hope for the best, prepare for the worst and LIVE. Just because its dry today does not mean that you shouldn’t have a raincoat handy for tomorrow, even if MOST of the rain will be somewhere else.
Do these guys get paid to say this?
I hope your a tad more accurate dis time…