RPI2.0 Hosting Hurricane Workshop
At the intersection of oceanographic science and the re/insurance industry stands the Risk Prediction Initiative [RPI], founded in 1995 by a group of local Bermudian insurers and reinsurers and the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences [BIOS].
Over the past 16 years, RPI has formed an extensive network of world-renowned climate scientists-including Program Manager since 1995, Dr. Rick Murnane-who have used their expertise in areas such as climate change, ocean currents, and ocean-atmosphere interactions to more accurately estimate the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes, including tropical cyclones and hurricanes.
Combined with more than a decade of experience regarding the needs of the re/insurance industry, RPI stands as one of the major players in science-based risk prediction for the re/insurance industry.
During that time, however, the re/insurance industry has changed greatly, as has the science that informs RPI’s products and services.
Dr. Falk Niehörster [pictured], mathematician and climate modeler, is tasked with breathing new life into RPI.
As the full-time, Bermuda-based Project Manager of the new and improved RPI-or RPI2.0-Dr. Niehörster is committed to rolling out a new business model that more effectively translates science into smarter business decisions for its members.
Dr. Niehörster hails from the London School of Economics where he contributed to the Munich Re Project and worked at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment chaired by Lord Nichols Stern, author of the Stern Review on the Economics and Climate Change.
His expertise in providing reliable information for risk management, adaptation, and mitigation dovetail with his background in system theory and decision making under deep uncertainty to provide unparalleled insight into risk prediction and extreme events.
As Project Manager, Dr. Niehörster is careful to emphasize the fundamental differences between RPI2.0 and the original RPI. Prime among these is that, while RPI2.0 continues to fund basic research on the impacts of climate change on catastrophe risk, it is refocusing its efforts on seasonal to five-year (medium term) timeframes, thereby providing its members with a strategic horizon that can be more successfully utilized in re/insurance applications and decision-making processes.
Dr. Niehörster emphasizes that his role in RPI2.0 is to help establish the Risk Prediction Initiative as a risk clearinghouse for the re/insurance industry on the island, as well as to strengthen the Bermuda re/insurance market by showing leadership in science-based catastrophic risk prediction and management. He also notes that RPI2.0 aims to become the independent expert to provide advice for the re/insurance industry on how to use and interpret diverse commercial risk models.
To this end, RPI2.0 and BIOS are hosting a workshop for RPI2.0 members on the medium-term outlook for the frequency of hurricane landfalls in the RMS v11.0 risk model. Scheduled for March 21 and 22, 2012, the workshop will feature RMS scientists presenting details on medium-term landfall frequencies in the new RMS v11.0 model. An invited panel of independent world-class scientists will then have the opportunity to discuss the implications of the RMS approach, with the goal of elucidating new avenues for research to be addressed by RPI2.0-funded research projects.
For more information on how to become a member organization of RPI2.0, the benefits of joining, or for details on the March workshop, please contact Dr. Falk Niehörster at falk.niehoerster@bios.edu.
BIOS is an independent marine science organization. It was founded in 1903 as the Bermuda Biological Station by scientists from Harvard and New York University to take advantage of Bermuda’s ideal location for deep-ocean and coral reef research and education. BIOS is a Registered Bermuda Charity and a US not-for-profit organisation.
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