By-Election To Be Called In Paget East
Following the resignation of OBA MP Dr Grant Gibbons, a by-election is expected to be called in Constituency 22 Paget East, meaning the island will be holding two by-elections in the coming months, as Dr Gibbons is the second MP to resign in recent days.
By-Election To Be Called | Date Unknown
The OBA confirmed that Dr Gibbons resignation will mean a by-election will be called for Paget East.
Until the writ is announced the date of the by-election is unknown, however when MPs have resigned in the past, the formal writ is generally announced about a week or two later, and the by-election occurred approximately 6-8 weeks after the MP resigned.
One saw the resignation on November 4th, and by-election on December 20th, another had the by-election held on November 18th following a  resignation on September 23rd, while another saw a resignation in early December result in a by-election on February 4th.
Past Election Results
Since the one MP system was implemented in 2003, Paget East has elected Dr Gibbons four times, twice as an OBA MP and twice under the UBP, with the margin of victory ranging from 63.94% to 80.63%.
In the 2017 General Election Dr Gibbons won 63.94% of the vote vs the PLP’s Curtis Richardson, and in the 2012 General Election Dr Gibbons won 74.20% of the vote vs the PLP’s Dawn Simmons.
In the 2007 General Election, Dr Gibbons, running under the UBP, won 77.33% of the vote vs the PLP’s Davida Morris and in 2003, Dr Gibbons won 80.63% of the vote vs the PLP’s Delaey Robinson.
Two OBA MPs Resign In One Week
The full impact of these resignations remains to be seen, however two OBA MPs resigning in one week has led to speculation about their party, especially as it follows after their defeat at the polls in the 2017 General Election, and the resignation of their former Chairman Nick Kempe.
Possible Outcomes
The 2017 General Election saw the PLP win 24 seats to the OBA’s 12, giving them a strong majority in the 36-seat House.
While anything can happen when voters go to the polls, looking at the past election results suggests that, statistically speaking, the seat in Paget East appears to be less of a challenge for the OBA to retain than the Warwick North West seat.
Paget East has elected OBA or UBP MPs in the last four elections with winning margins from 64% to 80%, while Warwick North West has elected two OBA and two PLP MPs in the last four elections, with the winning margins ranging from 52% – 57%.
The OBA could retain both seats keeping the split at 24-12, lose one seat changing it to 25-11, or lose both changing the split to 26-10, and, while unlikely, it is also technically possible that an independent candidate could stand and win either seat.
Dr Gibbons and Mr Baron only recently resigned, so neither party has announced their candidate yet, however both are likely to do so in the coming weeks.
No to Nandi !