OBA’s Bob Richards: ‘The Big Myth’
[Written by Shadow Finance Minister Bob Richards]
There is a myth that all Bermuda’s economic troubles are the result of problems with the global economy. It is illustrated in the saying “when the US sneezes, Bermuda gets a cold.”
This myth is reinforced by the Government. In the recent Throne Speech, the Premier said the “simple truth is that there is no escape from the contagious and harmful effects of the economic downturn in those countries with which Bermuda does business.”
The facts on the ground completely disprove this statement and prove it is indeed a myth.
You don’t have to be an economist or a financial analyst to figure it out. Just read the news and it is clear that the entire world is not in trouble. There is economic growth in China, Australia, Singapore, Brazil and, closer to home, Canada. The problem areas are in Europe, UK and the US, though there are many sectors within that economy that are growing.
The United States is our major trading partner. What are the facts in this trading relationship?
In tourism, the relationship is indeed tied to the overall state of the US economy. US consumer confidence has a significant impact on whether Americans travel or not. Bermuda tourism benefits or suffers depending on how confident Americans feel about their economic situation. Holiday travel and therefore Bermuda tourism is closely connected to the American mood. But tourism, while we could do much to improve its performance, is not the main issue today. Incredibly, it now accounts for just 5% of our total economic output.
This is not to say that our management and promotion of our tourism product is irrelevant. Not at all, it is most relevant to our success in tourism, but Bermuda’s overall economic health is not going to be decided by tourism.
Our economic well-being is decided by international business; by far the most important sector of our economy, generating more than 60% of our gross domestic product.
Recently, the Stonebridge Group was retained by Business Bermuda (formerly BIBA) to analyse the trading relationship between Bermuda and the United States. It has produced three reports covering the years 2007 – 2010.
Stonebridge said, in its 2010 report, after reviewing data for 2009 – when most of the world was in the depths of the Great Recession – that in the last two years “overall growth in trade and investment remained at 2007 levels but did not decline.” At that time, Bermuda’s trade with the US was valued at $64 billion.
In Stonebridge’s 2011 update, Bermuda’s trade with the US grew to $80 billion. That’s a year-over-year increase of 25%. Stonebridge observed that in spite of the global economic crisis and difficulties in US financial markets “Bermuda-U.S. economic ties remained surprisingly strong.” Stonebridge also noted that Bermuda’s insurance sector was relatively “independent” from the economic crisis hurting larger financial centres and was “not correlated” with the global financial troubles.
So, contrary to the myth that many Bermudians have been led by this Government to believe, our business with America has been strong, not weak.
In Bermuda, the “Class 4″ reinsurers (the biggest companies) are the leaders in the insurance/reinsurance sector and comprise the nucleus around which Bermuda’s economy is centred. A sample of these Class 4 companies was selected: Ace, XL, Partner Re, Renre, Axis, Flagstone, Everest, and Endurance.
Data drawn from this sample shows that the 2010 profits of these companies totaled $7.9 billion, having increased 482% from 2008. Premiums rose marginally over the same period to $33.8 billion.
Ace and XL are marquee companies for Bermuda. Ace’s 2010 profits were up 136% to $3.6 billion, compared to 2008; while XL recovered from a disastrous loss of $595 million in 2008 to post a $633 million profit in 2010, a positive swing of more than $1.2 billion in two years.
Only one conclusion can be drawn from the information and it is this: Bermuda’s primary industry, reinsurance and insurance; the industry that earns Bermuda critical foreign currency, has not only resisted the recession it has prospered.
But there’s a problem here.
Economic growth is supposed to create jobs not destroy them, so what’s going on here? Why has Bermuda slumped into an employment crisis?
The answer is that the growth registered by the Bermuda domiciled insurance/reinsurance industry has created jobs outside of Bermuda, not here on the Island.
The reason the Government doesn’t want you to know this fact is because they want to hide the truth of what is going. And what is that truth? It is that Bermuda’s massive job losses, income losses and opportunity losses are not, in the main, imported from abroad, but instead have a ‘Made In Bermuda’ stamp all over them.
Due to Government policy, practice and attitudes, Bermuda companies have chosen to grow their businesses outside Bermuda. The specific policies causing these problems centre on the hassle, expense and disruptive nature of the Department of Immigration and the Term Limit policy.
In a 2011 Bermuda Business survey of international executives’ views of Bermuda as a place, “…to do business”, 55% said “it was a more difficult place to do business than in the past.” When asked why, 40% of those surveyed said that “uncertainty over work permits led to that perception.”
This issue is a ‘Made In Bermuda’ issue.
But there’s more: Let’s not forget the Finance Minister’s disastrous hike in payroll taxes in 2009, an out-of-the-blue decision that surely cost Bermuda many jobs. The reversal of this blunder the next year did not bring those jobs back. Also, let’s not forget the wave of violent crime that has hurt the Island’s attractiveness as a place to live for a prospective expatriate worker.
These issues have a ‘Made In Bermuda’ stamp on them.
The One Bermuda Alliance believes work permits are necessary. The advertising of jobs so that qualified Bermudians have first crack at them is a must. But we do oppose Immigration’s bureaucratic processes that work against job-creating growth in the economy. A proper and efficient work permit process will open opportunities for Bermudians.
It must be remembered that expatriate personnel spend money in our island for food, rent, transportation, entertainment, etc. All these activities support Bermudian jobs directly or indirectly, as well as government revenues.
The Government talks about there being “no escape” from the world’s financial problems. But that is false. The correlation between fewer expatriate workers in Bermuda and fewer jobs for Bermudians is direct and undeniable. These are the facts of life in today’s Bermuda from which there is no escape.
Many of us have heard international business executives say, repeatedly, that they are global businesses that have offices in Bermuda. But many of us, including the Government, haven’t got the message.
The message is that they don’t have to hire in Bermuda if it is too much trouble or too expensive or too disruptive. They have alternatives, and they have exercised their alternatives. That’s the reality of globalization, and that is the reality we have to do our best to live with.
The Government has taken measures to encourage small business. This is good. There are many members of the OBA who are successful entrepreneurs, so we identify strongly with that experience. But we also know that it is extremely difficult for local entrepreneurs to prosper if there is a lack of new money coming into the economy through our international business sector.
The money and jobs this sector generates creates business for local businesses. Growth in this sector is vital for all levels of our economy, even amongst those businesses that don’t sell directly to expatriates.
We at the OBA, unlike the Government, have recognized the sources of Bermuda’s economic problems and we will make Immigration reform one of our top priorities. We will suspend the term limit policy for two years in order to formulate a replacement policy. We have a plan to tackle gang crime.
We will make every effort to encourage new business formation in Bermuda and provide existing international business with an environment in which its people will feel comfortable creating jobs within Bermuda – an action that will also create jobs, prosperity and opportunity for all Bermudians.
Yes bob logic thinking people knew this from the start. It’s only hardcore PLP people that don’t want to accept were here because of the PLP big spending policies.
Bob Richards is the true fraud. He knows that corporate profits and Jobs are not linked. If that was the case the USA would not have an unemployment rate over 9%. Aha, that’s right USA’s unemployment problem is Bermuda made because of the PLP’s work permit policy.
Bob, geta grip and stop misleading people
Are you serious? Did you read the article? What part of this article is undeniable?
You really should get a grip! If corporations are to make money, people have to go to work. No workers means no work gets done.
… and no employer means no jobs.
DITTO…he who knows it all however knows nothing. Can only assume! Imagine him as the finance minister…Lord help us all!!!
Get a Grip needs to Get a Brain!!!!
What… No response from the Koolaid Club yet???
Guess their handlers have not sent them a brief yet on how to respond to this one.
I agree 100% Mr. Richards… read the article from start to finish and tried to find fault in it… I see none. No doubt the pen name posters will throw cold water on this article as they usually do but you can’t escape the facts. Made in Bermuda… Nuff said.
Clinton J. A. Paynter
One Bermuda Alliance
Caucus/Shadow Transport Board Member
Clinton you are the new aka oba-ite – they can serve you doo doo and you will say thanks for the chocolate ice cream … go get some education under your belt and then try to be literate. (only sharing what the elitist obaers are saying behind your back)
I take no stock or loose no sleep over comments from anonymous posters such as yourself. I actually find it quite humorous… I was wondering how long it would take for someone to lob disparaging remarks my way. Thanks for the encouragement!
*lose
This is the stupidest thing I have heard in a while. Stupid and egotistical. Plus all the numbers being shown here are from 2007 – 2010, and yes the SLOW recovery was already taking place. So using these numbers to prove that it’s “Bermuda’s” fault is a little misleading. Also China’s economy is shrinking a little as well, its been in the news( http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/23/chinas-mighty-industrial-machine-is-stalling/?iref=allsearch). Pride comes before the fall Bob Richards…
Better do a little more reading “Back”. China’s economy is NOT shrinking. It is growing at a tremendous rate, but it is not growing as fat as it was in the recent past and it may not grow fast enough to support the large influx of rural people to the cities.
@Back. Yeah blame foreigners!! Obama inhereted his problems. PLP created ours. PLP is pathetic. They do not take ownership for Bermuda because their Record is terrible. PLP inherited a gem and they destroyed it. Well done pathetic PLP!!!!!!
Bob Richards why are you talking this hog wash? I get it Michael Dunkley must have put something extra in his free milk that you and the rest of OBA/UBP crew get at your meeting to discuss the Pee L Pea.
If you want to beat the Cog you better come better then this. Craig I told you don’t merge with these UBP fools. Now their using your slogo to try and win the next election because no Blacks in Bermuda want to vote for the UBP.
Yawwwnnn….
exactly…
If your tired jump in bed bald head, then again Bobby has your best interest at heart.
why don’t you enroll at the Bermuda College and take some political science classes, Clinton, you are just not ready my brother.
Heyyyyy Kool Aid !!
you sound like a child
Way over the typical comprehension level of Koolaid crew.
Unfortunately so true. Doubt if most of them could balance a current account, if they know what a current account is.
Instead of the useless banter, I invite those who think that this is complete nonsense to state the reason(s) why. I have read it and the facts seem researchable and verifiable.
What EXACTLY are you taking exception to? You could be dismissive or you could put together a reasoned rational response as to why you disagree.
I’ll be watching this space.
As is to be expected certain people have a problem because Bob Richards/ The OBA has made the statement. If they were to actually address the facts instead of dismissing everything outright their complaints would disappear.
we tried to believe you all when you were ubp but you had to deceive us and not not believing …..
…No reasoned responses yet?. Just over 5 hours later, still waiting.
PLP cannot provide a meaningful response. They are trash and they know it. They just hope everyday that Bermudians do not wake up!!!!!
Bob Bob Bob please stop making sense and speaking so truthfully….Everyone knows that unemployment in the US was 7% before the crash and is now 9% and falling….everyone also knows that retail in the states has been going up for 2 years now and just this morning the US announced a large increase in new jobs…contrast that to what we have here….Unemployment which we never had is now at……who knows what it is now because they will not tell you but it is higher than the US….and to go from ZERO to a lot is not heading in the right direction…retail in Bermuda? yes its been in a slow and steady death spiral while the US has not…Ewart Brown and the newly selected candidate David Burch sent this economy into a death glide with their attitudes towards the only leg of the Bermuda economy and the mounting debt makes it almost irreversible.. We are not the US koolaid crew we are more like Greece thanks to your Government and they have no clue what to do next…..Bob is 100% spot on……..
A lot of name calling which is to be expected considering the author of the article, but this does not alter the facts: Richards is spot on!!
I can agree with much of this article however, the corporate profits of the selected 8 insurers is in no way an a significant indicator or reflection of the overall economy of the USA or Bermuda. While these companies experienced profits in 2010, which was a very quiet hurricane and major catastrophe year, have a look at their declining to flat stock prices during 2010, or have a look at their slumping investment returns. Those measures are more indicative of the overall economy. Three of these companies have laid off several Bermudians jobs during 2010 (and the jobs lost are not necessarily due to an expiration of term limits, I might add) , and one is going through a very major re-organization.
Profits of the Insurance/Reinsurance business is too volitile to use in this fashion. Profits go on to pay off the large debt that most of these companies have incurred, and to pay off the significant insurance losses that all of these companies will inevitably will have. (like they did already in 2011 with the New Zealand and Japan earthquakes)
2019 was a $38 Billion Cat loss year. Bermuda reinsurers cat losses were $3.6 Billion ( deepwater Hoeizon, Chike earthquake, New Zealand Earthquake, Australian Floods). Much of this loss was offset by reserve releases( $2.7billion) from prior loss periods.
Large debts? The cost of the debt raised is small for most and I would anticipate seeing the resumption of stock repurchase programs as most are trading (despite losses) well below their Book Value.
Cat reinsurers are likely to be volatile, but most are well diversified worldwide and don’t throw all their eggs in one basket. They expect losses, if there were no losses, there would be no value in reinsurance. The 2011 losses have seen rate rises which are good for reinsurers.
Political risk and the poor performance of the PLP do impact companies. The payroll tax and now airport taxes, crime and overburden of debt by the Bermuda government do not go without notice. The people who work in those companies live it daily. Numbers have left Bermuda for reasons of dissatisfaction. When those key people go, the industry is diluted and it fragments and develops elsewhere.
Erm 2010 not 2019…… You are not supposed to know what happens in 2019 yet!
if you were a good actuary you would know what CAT losses would be in 2019
Whats the differance between the Rev. Jim Jones and Ewart Brown………….
EB dresses much better & always travels first class.
I think youv’e been drifting too long. You don’t get it tryangle do you…….
Jim Jones had the decency to do to himself what he did to his followers
The flavour of the Kool Aid ?
Bob by your own admission, certain Insurance Companies have rebounded..with little affect on the Bermudian worker…does this proves that the Insurance Companies tentacle does not benefit most Bermudian…you know 1% vs 99%
..and the other leg of IB Investment Companies which hires the most Bermudian are still suffering from their Maddof and sub-prime mortgage losses, any connection there, with the Bermudian worker…ie “Citigroup” laying off worker in the USA and Canada.
I guess the PLP is the cause for these companies revenue losses, as well as their inability to attract new revenues like what, they have enjoyed in past.
Should we be going back down the same road…the PLP is the cause for the high rents we demand as well..
Most large international insurance and reinsurance companies are doing fine, even given the cat events this year.
They are hiring and expanding in some territories, but not in Bermuda. That is the point. In Switzerland, London, New York,and other places, it’s a different story. Here companies are generally shrinking. In other places they are growing. Over time, they are going where they are welcomed, rather than given a hard time, and where it is easy to do business, rather than difficult.
Surely you do not beleive that? Why don’t you have an in-depth look at a few of these companies Q3 results and then come back on here and re-define your comment.
You are so out of the loop it’s unbelievable. Q3 was caused by cat losses, which have been really bad this year. But what that means is that prices are going up, and the market generally is improving. None of the major companies with Bermuda ties have long term problems – one quarter is pretty meaningless on its own, other than for the positive effect it might have on pricing.
Mad Dawg has a good point.
you will never get it same old same old…
and neither will you…..if you think companies operating in Bermuda has nothing to do with their parent companies profits/losses…INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS operates in isolation in Bermuda. oh yes Bermuda is another world..
same old, You are so completely wrong it’s amazing.
Mr. Richards: Thank you for helping me understand better what has been happening financially to this island. I knew we were being misled, but I didn’t always understand enough about big business to back up my perceptions. I appreciate your analysis.
Can’t wait to see the 2011 figures. I wonder if they will tie in with what Bobby is saying above. As we all know, this year has been the roughest year worldwide.
One thing for sure Can’t take it anymore is that we will have the numbers for the insurance industry much quicker than we will have any numbers from our Government…just releasing their version of 2010 tourism numbers with 29 days left in 2011? you have just a smattering of knowledge of the insurance/reinsurance business to be dangerous but you have no grasp whatsoever that the cat losses are not reflective of the feelings of the IB community towards doing business here…The policies of your government with regard to taxes,permits, etc have put the island on the back burner for growth plans….people will still be here and have jobs just not at the same level as before.. Thank Ewart Brown and David Burch for Sven and Johnny and thank Paula Cox for the tax increase and its really as simple as that…no magic…The PLP are not business people just in it for themselves people…
Come on guys, stop telling half stories!!! Tell the whole story!! All, and I mean all of the figures above are correct that Bobby gives, however, where it becomes misleading for those that catch it, is that they are 2010 and older figures. I agree Bobby is spot on with the numbers part and re/insurance information. What he does not mention is the fact that the latest Q3 figures of those same companies he cited are in some cases dropped by more than 100%! If you do not beleive me, d oa search for those companies websites and then click and view their Q3 results. You will see with your own eyes that the re/insurance sector has take na substantial hit. Think about it, there have been 3 New Zealand quakes (very major each one), two Japanese quakes, Japanese typhoons, Floods in Denmark, floods in Thailand, Hurricane Irene, fires in Canada, California fires, Texas wildfires, Cyclones, and even floods in Australia. The losses from these events reach in the 100 of billions of dollars. And our re/insurance copmanies are paying for a good hefty chunk of it. Trust me when I tell you all, they are taking a hit and it is hurting Bermuda. Even their investment sides have taken losses for the past nine months reported this Q3. Tell the whole story, not just a part. Again, Bobby is spot on with the numbers, but he failed to report on what is happening in 2011, which is the current times. Stop trying to mislead the masses Bobby. And all do not beleive everything you read. When in doupt or it seems to good, do a little research and you wil find the answers.
Wrong. Obviously, you have nothing more than a sketchy understanding of what’s going on in insurance and reinsurance. Their 3Q numbers are down compared to 3Q last year, but despite that they are doing fine. They still have their expanded staffs in Zurich, London, New York, and other places. They are still stable and in business. And because of the large number of natural catastrophes this year, prices are rising in the insurance and reinsurance industries, and the future year or two looks pretty good.
The question is: will Bermuda participate in that good-looking future, or have the managements of insurers become so disillusioned with Bermuda, that they will deploy capital and operations elsewhere?
The answer has already started to play out, over the past year or two.
If thats what you think, then fine. Either way, you just proved my point about Bda being in trouble despite Bobby’s spew that we are not.
All part of the insurance game and nothing they are freaking out about. The Bermuda trend began long before 2011.
O but we are freaking out. Hence what Rick Rock is saying above about offices moving to other countries and relocating their head offices. This is all the begining. However, Rick Rock unknowingly cites that rates are rising, but i would liek to know where too? Rates are still low and the market is still soft. Though, here is where it gets tricky, if the rates are going up and that sector is doing fine economically, then the big trickle effect will affect Bermuda and thus further prove that the Bermuda economic system will improve sooner than most think, PLP or not. You can’t have it both ways.
@ Can’t Take It Anymore: It seems you are missing the point. It doesn’t matter how well or how poorly the insurance and re-insurance companies are doing, most of them are not doing it HERE any longer. They don’t want to do business on this island and that is hurting us all. If it was all about WWR (world-wide recession) IB and their island employees would be weathering the storm together. As it stands, except for a few, IB is weathering (or profiting) from the storm somewhere else. We have no jobs to offer those who are left. There is no trickle, sir, if there is no IB.
Sorry Can’t take it Anymore you get bits and pieces of it but not all of the picture…Rates are low and the market is soft….agreed…..rates in some sectors of reinsurance are improving….not enough but improving…and here is where you need to make the disconnect that it will necessarily effect Bermuda positively with the big trickle of which you speak….People and Companies have been leaving for about 2 1/2 years since the peak of the Ewart and Colonel onslaught of anti-IB rhetoric and Madame Premier’s ill advised tax hike and they have been leaving in a little trickle…..Companies are still here and there is still a market but we are no longer the be all and end all of the world and have let other jurisdictions pass us by…..places that are more business friendly(switzerland for example) with a better educated work force and access to another client base (european companies who may not buy in Bermuda)..despite the statements of your government the immigration department is a mess and right up to this very second companies are still begging for permits with the red tape( not red carpet) that is the government of Bermuda. I have been doing this for a long long time at the highest of levels and cen tell you with absolute certainty that our best days for IB are long behind us and will not return to those halcyon days….there will jobs but there will not be as many….so stop looking for the restaurants to fill up with expense account people and their clients as that is just not the way of the world in Bermuda anymore…..thank you Ewart and thank you Colonel….
Losses lead to a harder market environment which benefits Bermuda as it is one of the best Insurance / Reinsurance markets for large line capacity. Why? Because their cost of holding capital is less due to the lack of tax on earnings. Bermuda’s Reinsurance/ Insurance industry was built on the back of large scale global losses. In short, new companies come on the scene in this environment and also existing companies who are well equipped to deal with losses also pick up the shortfall with rate increases going forward in those territories affected. Aus, NZ, JPY etc. The scale of losses are largely global so the stagnation at the moment is in the US market where losses have not been enough to fully tip the market significantly and prompt rate increases. Should that happen, Bermuda’s lack of red tape in setting up a functioning business gives it significant strengths compared to other jurisdictions in terms of speed to market. That said what has happened recently is that the PLP have squeezed these companies by the Crown Jewels from an immigration perspective and have failed to identify the negative effects of their policies. The racial rhetoric and public image that the previous PLP administration did a lot of damage to Bermuda’s reputation with these companies and a politically stable environment. In short these expats think the Government hates all expat workers and white people. Not to say all IB expat workers are white but the majority are. This is where we cross Bermuda’s racial legacy with modern day business environment, which in turn is a symptom of institutionalized racism but that is not going to be forced into correction by hard line immigration policies and general bad attitude towards these businesses and individuals. The damage is done! Only a change of Government will change that perception, if the PLP get in another term then Bermuda will become an increasingly less favorable place to do Business. Another point is that the CEO’s of these companies also understand finance and when they see how badly run the government runs its Fiscal policy they again doubt the future of this country and rightfully so.
Well to all those not believing what Mr. Richards has said……You need only to look in your pockets, listen to your friends tell the stories about how many people they are helping because they can’t and listen to your neighbours and see how they are pulling in those purse stings and have been for a few years. You don’t need to be a koolaid kid or a blind stalwart to see because at the end of the day we are all suffering the plight of bad governance and will continue to suffer if key areas such ad Tourism, Work Permit Terms and all this over spending doesnt get looked at.
I hope all the pseudonyms on here don’t bite there words come the new year.
In fairness to the PLP Government I believe there has been a genuine effort made during the past 12 years to address the social ills of our community and to give a helping hand to those who were most in need. Tragically these good intentions have been thwarted by a small influential group who have given a helping hand to themselves and their friends at the expense of the whole country, and have squandered public funds in the process. There is no way that Bermuda should be in debt to the tune of over $1 billion. And who was it that was constantly sounding the alarm bells while we sank into this enormous hole? It was Mr. Richards. Judging by his latest article he really does know what he’s talking about and we will all be the losers if we fail to hear what he’s saying.
On the issue of work permits and the negative effect Government’s policy has had on International Business, the companies themselves have been pleading with Government to change it’s policy but to little avail. It’s called the law of unintended consequences. International companies have quietly and efficiently been transferring their staff to other jurisdictions. It may not be too late to reverse this trend, but it will take courage to admit that the consequences of our work permit policy has been devastating. Again, Mr. Richards’ proposal to suspend the term limit policy for two years in order to formulate a replacement policy is both practical and easily implemented.
What we really need now is a coalition Government with our two (or three) political parties working together to see us through these difficult times, but we all know that will never happen. Maybe it’s time for a new regime that will actually listen to the mainstay of our economy – International Business.
Well said, ‘Common Sense’, I agree completely……..
and there you have it….I could not agree with you more…you are 1000% spot on…
Unfortunately even if you spell it out in words of one syllable there are people who will refuse to listen.
It can’t be that they don’t understand; the message is so clear and simple. Some people just don’t want to hear it, and refuse to discuss it intelligently.