“Higher Likelihood Of Above-Normal Season”

August 9, 2017

The U.S-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] updated their 2017 hurricane season outlook today [Aug 9], predicting a “higher likelihood of an above-normal season,” and increasing the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes from their initial outlook issued earlier this year.

The season has the “potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010,” NOAA said.

NOAA forecasters now say there is a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season [compared to the May prediction of 45 percent chance], with 14-19 named storms [increased from the May predicted range of 11-17] and 2-5 major hurricanes [increased from the May predicted range of 2-4]. A prediction for 5-9 hurricanes remains unchanged from the initial May outlook.

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook August 9 2017

“We’re now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

“The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”

Dr Bell noted other factors that point to an above-normal season include warmer waters across the tropical Atlantic than models previously predicted and higher predicted activity from available models.

In just the first nine weeks of this season there have been six named storms, which is half the number of storms during an average six-month season and double the number of storms that would typically form by early August.

An average Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-November 30, produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, NOAA said.

2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names August 9 2017

NOAA added, “The updated outlook is based on the current and evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the most recent model predictions, and pre-and early-season storm activity. The numbers announced today include the season activity to-date.

“The Atlantic basin has seen six named storms [Arlene in April; Bret and Cindy in June; Don and Emily in July; and Franklin in August]. Two of these storms, Cindy and Emily, struck the United States.

“Cindy made landfall on June 22 at the Louisiana-Texas border and caused heavy rain, inland flooding and multiple tornado outbreaks. Emily made landfall on July 31 in Anna Maria Island, Florida. Franklin is predicted to make landfall in Mexico overnight as a hurricane.

“Today’s update also decreases the chance of a near-normal season from 35 percent to 30 percent, and a below-normal season from 20 percent to only 10 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.”

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Comments (12)

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  1. Point boy says:

    We’ve been hit at least once every year for at least seven years. If not a direct hit close enough to get real damage.
    I think we deserve a break. Lol

    • David john says:

      I agree 150 percent!boy I,m tired of my property belongings being
      Damaged or written off every single year since fabian in 03.

  2. Sargasso says:

    Where are they predicting a hit? Any wagers on for direct hits, misses or which insurance companies make the biggest profits? We have three months left, including a late storm or 3… I am in…

    • Point boy says:

      I say first week of September just before school starts

      • Point boy says:

        New Government! What leaks and mould you talking about.

        Not in our schools. 100 days are coming quick and fast.

        Time for some knee jerk reaction!.? Oh Snap!

        Where have I seen that before? O snap I remember. Hmm

  3. Um.... says:

    I’d be ok if these storms decided to give us a break this year.

  4. Adam says:

    I love it. There is a 75% chance that there will be an above average chance that there will be a higher likelihood of an above normal hurricane season this yr. read between the lines…they have been so wrong in the past and their predictions are worthless so they give us vague at best forecasts. Laughable!

    • Toodle-oo says:

      You can actually google search the history of their predictions with what really happened each year .
      It will demonstrate that you are exactly right .

    • Point boy says:

      Well??? We’ve had the storms to prove them correct.

      I’m not knocking them! I just wish they were wrong

  5. Hurricane Expert says:

    Welcome To Bermuda! We don’t fear hurricanes, we party in them. Bring it on. Another reason to stay home, get drunk, and tell stories with whoever your riding out the storm with. Thank God for our strong houses. We need a nice blow to help scrub down the island.

    • Point boy says:

      Where’s the like button on that! Bermudians know how to party!

  6. Christine says:

    The two last things we need is america at war and a hurricane things will tank fast in bermy