Survey Shows OBA Ahead Of PLP

March 2, 2012

If an election were held tomorrow, the One Bermuda Alliance would garner 39% of the vote, with the ruling Progressive Labour Party taking 30% of the vote, according to a recent survey by Profiles of Bermuda.

The survey was conducted among 301 registered voters between the latter part of 2011 and February 10th and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6%.

“Some 23% were either undecided. Just 1% would vote for either the United Bermuda Party or independents, while 5% would not vote. If the margin of error of 5.6% were factored in, the race would be considered a statistical dead heat. Compared to the last election, 42% stated that they voted for the PLP and 44% for the UBP,” said a statement released by Profiles of Bermuda.

“By sex there were some differences in voting habits: 29% of males and 31% of females indicated that they would vote for the PLP. For the OBA, the figures were 49% and 33% respectively.

“By race, 96% of all those who would vote for the PLP were Black, compared to 4% of Whites and Others. On the other hand, of all those who stated that they would vote for the OBA, 33% were Black and 67% were of White and Other races. And of all those who stated that they were undecided, 65% were Black and 35% were White and Other races.”

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  1. Voice of Reason says:

    Hmmm, If an election were held tomorrow, the results would reflect a poll from latter part of 2011?

    Whats even more crazy is that the people asked said they voted for the UBP over the PLP, but the PLP won the last election….. Hmmm.

    Can’t put much stock in this poll, however the PLP has certainly lost electoral support, thing is that the OBA isn’t picking it up.

    • Truth (original) says:

      You’re delusional if you think that the OBA is not winning over PLP supporters. I am one and I now that I am not alone. ALL of my friends are disappointed with this “unethical but not illegal” Government.

      • Come correct says:

        Shhhhhhh clear your mind, apparently he can read our thoughts….

      • Yep ok says:

        You think that the OBA is going to win over the PLP? You better get off the Milk Man’s cow totty. Do it now and fast. They may win in the next election, but trust me they are far from winning this next on.

        • Bermudian@heart.. says:

          It real does not matter, as long as we get the message across that we are the voters and we decide who gets into power cause right now the way i see it P.L.P. is as bad as the old U.B.P..they dont care about you or me or anyone else but them selfs….

  2. Triangle Drifter says:

    Maybe the OBA is layin quiet letting the PLP self destruct like the UBP did.

    30% is a high number for a Government that has been such a miserable failure. It shows how many vote emotion & race rather than hard cold facts & issues.

    The debt alone should be enough to turf the PLP out on their butts for doing such a lousy job. Anywhere else the odour of corruption that surrounds the PLP would be enough grounds to handily throw them out.

    • Ryan says:

      ‘Anywhere else?’ Explain the US – Obama still has a mid-40s approval rating!

      Triangle, your sweeping statements sometimes confuse me.

  3. Hmmmmm says:

    Isn’t 400 the accepted theshold for statistical validity with this population? Pointless exercise not worthy of publication.

    • Tired of nonsense says:

      Maybe you should tell Cordell Riley I believe Profiles is his company…

  4. Jim Bean says:


    • Tired of nonsense says:

      Unfortunately I don’t believe that…will be closer than previous years however

  5. VOTT!! says:

    The poll was conducted between the latter part of 2011 and Feb. 10th. IMO Cordell is a PLP advocate. So why is his poll “a pointless exercise not worthy of publication.” It speaks volumes and if you thought the PLP was in panic mode before…..WATCHOUT!!

    • Specialgirl4you says:

      VOTT…..No need to panic dear……too much options in there for the PLP to work with. Do not get comfortable yet…..gate is still wide open. (Recall pass elections….UBP polls reflected the same, and you lost). If you understand the political process,,,, change can happen over night. One thing can make a big difference. I never get excited over polls, as I am knowledgeable on how they work and are developed. Done it myself. It is evident that the OBA is not closing any doors or gaining any additional votes, based upon this poll. It looks like the UBP have taken votes from the OBA.

    • Johnny says:

      According to this poll the UBP won the last election!!

  6. Specialgirl4you says:

    Polls are a “snap-shot” of a specific time period……Polls can change based upon what is going on within a Society. It is always more difficult for a ruling party during an economic downturn. But, it is expected, as people require government to provide everything for them. Findings of this poll suggest that:
    1. The OBA isn’t picking up those undecided voters and people do not have a high level of confident in them. No change for them. It would have been anticipated that the OBA would have convinced voters with their political strategy on the “Debt” as only being a Bermuda problem with no impact from the worldwide recession. This indicates that folks are wiser, and are learning the entire story.
    2. The PLP voters usually make up their mind late, and often stay with the PLP
    3. The Margin of error usually swings in favor of a ruling party.
    4. White and Black voting patterns are similar, and unchanged., however the blacks swing-voter determine the outcome of an election.

    Interesting in deed….but I think the election will be tight, but the PLP will get through it….for another 4 years.

    • Pastor Syl says:

      @ specialgirl4you: Please God, I hope you are wrong. Another 4 years of this kind of government sounds like a nightmare straight from Hell!

  7. Cancer says:

    Specialgirl I’m really starting to see how silly you really are! Are you getting paid to route as you do for the PLP? Your silly logic is undeniable. Get ready to accept defeat my dear cuz the OBA is cutting your a$$! Lol lol at you!

  8. Cancer says:

    Gonna have some very sad, upset, disgruntled, its all about me and the flipflop PLP people after the OBA win the next election! Hurry Cog call it now. The longer you take the more the PLP PLoP!!!!

  9. All,
    It is interesting to see the comments. Mr. Riley did the poll and then offered his comments. At the time of the election PLP voters will usually rally to the PLP (as would any undecided UBP voters in the past).

    The simple reality is that many PLP voters are disenchanted and it is for the PLP to do what is necessary to get them back in the fold. It is quite telling that whilst they are digruntled, they have not decided to vote OBA.

    I will also say that the disparate voting amongst blacks and whites remains as a stumbling block for our longterm social development.

    If you had a listen, newest (and youngest) Minister Bean gave a spirited response to the OBA. The future bodes well for our young people.

    • jt says:

      Mr. Bean’s latest comments have resulted in me losing all respect for him.

  10. Just sayin says:

    Ms. Cox, they are only joking, hold an election.

  11. Familiar says:

    Polls have little value aside from giving people something to talk about and I’m certain there will be polls in the near future which state that the PLP is showing ahead.

    When it comes down to it, I believe it will be a close election, and the deciding vote will actually come down to no vote at all as I suspect there will be quite a few disgruntled PLP faithful who would rather not vote, than vote for a different party.

  12. Rick Rock says:

    Maybe the poll shows that the previous plp voters who have lost their jobs, struggled with their mortgages, seen their taxes go up, seen their country get into serious and unresolvable debt, seen the bus and ferry services fall into disrepair, seen greed and self-serving cronyism among the plp political elite, have had enough and want a change.

  13. People's Poet says:

    The PLP think all is well
    In the air there’s a horrible smell
    But the public knows
    What you reaps you sows
    5 more years will send us to Hell

  14. Trident says:

    I suggest people go and look at:

    punch in: election 2007 and read the comments, they were the same, the same posters, the same polls spelling doom for the plp, the same scandals (corruption, racism)

    and just like then, nothing proved in a court of law, just smears and just like 2007 the PLP will win the election

    posers on this site who say they used to be plp but will not vote, they are lying, it would mean that they voted for a dr. brown plp (though they blame him for everything) but not cox, doesn’t add up.

    the final say on corruption in bda is the UK, if there was really corruption in bda why wont the uk step in, hey stepped in in grenanda, in T&C, in the falklands, even in irealnd to a degree, why would bda get a pass

    they wouldn’t – they are all lies
    if you think that Grant Gibbons, scion of that old white wealthy bdan family who spends more time in the us than bda, if you think his party is the party for you then by all means vote for him – he is the 40 thieves – the oba is not craig’s party – don’t be fooled an don’t vote obaubp

    0, Rendell Arton Hamilton
    Lt, Col.l,C Astwood, O,B,E” E.D, Sandys
    E. Harley Barnes Warwick
    Lionel M. Barnes Paget
    lames N, Burnett-Herkes Sandys
    Gilbert A. Cooper Pembroke
    Sir N. Bayard Dill. CB.E. Devonshire
    Lawrence P. Gutteridge Smith’s
    Ralph 0. Marshall Southampton
    Dr. William H.C Masters,
    M.B” Ch.B. Paget
    John M.s. Patton, G.C Warwick
    James E. Pearman, CB.E. Pembroke
    Gayous E, Powell Southampton
    The Hon, George 0, Ratteray Sandys
    The Hon, Edward T, Richards Warwick
    S.s. Toddings, O,B,E” J.P, st. George’s
    DeForest Trimingham Paget
    Sir Henry I, Tucker. CB,E. Paget
    J. Brownlow Tucker St. George’s
    John H. Sharpe Warwick
    The Hon. C Vail Zuill, J,p Smith’s
    Sir N, Henry P. Vesey, CB,E, Smith’s
    The Hon, A, Dudley Spurling,
    CB.E..J.P, St. George’s
    Ernest W,P, Vesey Hamilton April.
    1965 Sir Henry Tucker
    underlined the solid experience in
    government, business and finance
    offered by the United Bermuda
    Party. He stressed the commit’-
    ment of the Party to represent all
    Bermudians at all levels of en-
    In late April. 1965 the first
    Central Council elected its first
    Slate of Officers:-
    Dr. John D. stubbs chairman
    Dr. E, Stanley 0, Ratteray
    Deputy chairman
    Mr. Ronald L. Barnard Deputy ChairmaD
    Mr.I. Christopher Astwood Secretary
    Dr. Clarence R. Terceira Treasurer
    The Central Council also
    suggested that Research Commit-
    tees be set up in matters of finance,
    taxation, education, social welfare,
    trade and industry and public relations.

    those days are over – put them to bed

    • pray tell says:

      And exactly how do you know where Dr G Gibbons spends most of his time ? You’re not even in Bermy … lol

      • Triangle Drifter says:

        Don’t feed the troll. He is not worth the time.

    • Trident says:

      i’ve been where hes been – away

    • Huh says:

      And how much time has Dr. Brown spennt in Bermuda? My understanding was that he had spent most of his adult life in the US before returning to BDA and entered politics. Why would you not judge him?

      • Rick Rock says:

        Bermuda was always a short term plan for him. Come, whip up the troops, skim enough dough, get the yacht and luxury house all paid for, and leave the place in a mess.

      • Somebody's Momma says:

        Everyone knows this country would not allow Dr Brown to practice medicine here hence his stay overseas. Lest we forget the roadblocks put in our pathway to success.

        • spoons says:

          Once he FINALLY could pass the local board exams he was allowed to practice. And he passed them (finally) when the UBP was in if I’m not mistaken.

          If your remark ‘roadblocks are put in your pathway to success’ is taken to mean what you suggest, then why are there so many other black doctors practicing here ?

          Keep spinning the hate !

  15. Specialgirl4You says:

    You are the most “Silly” of all Bloggers. You are on here daily, calling individuals names and spreading the “political rhetoric” of the UBP/OBA. You hide in “Cyber-space lynching” the government from a safe position. Coward, Coward at best. Yet, you do nothing to contribute to a better Bermuda in a positive light. You are the “biggest sad cog” in the wheel of the OBA/UBP. If you where knowledgeable on poll results interpretation, you would clearly recall past polls when you all believed you were ahead, Yes the polls shown such data, but reality proved a different picture. OBA/UBP believed they had the election in the bag. But again this was not the case. So be careful, if you know nothing about scientific political polling. There is a large measure of error…more interesting than that, persons have decided not to give their votes to the OBA/UBP. You have failed to gain any more ground than the ruling party to win. Why has your political strategy to push mis-information about the “debt” not winning you all those undecided voters? Or votes that the UBP have gained? One would think persons would give their votes to the OBA/UBP without any thought, but this is clearly not the case. You believe you’re winning…..if it makes you have that feel good feeling for awhile. But smart people know different. Yes…Silly you are to believe such……

    • mrwiggin says:

      “Smart people know different.”

      Yes, maybe if you could construct a sentence properly, “smart people” would take you more seriously.

  16. Specialgirl4You says:

    My comment was for that deadly @ Cancer….

  17. jt says:

    Marc Bean started the race card politics this week – more to come no doubt and it will be sure to reel in those undecideds.

    • pepper says:

      Mark Bean is a protege of Doc Brown !!!! so he has to continue by playing the race card.
      I thought the debate was supposed to be about the budget…but the biased speaker of the house let him rant and rave about race !!!

    • Vote for Me says:

      @ jt
      One of the difficulties in having a solid debate is to ensure we have the same starting point. To assist all of us, please explain what you mean by the race card.

      I note that Min. Bean stated that MP Cannonier was voted as OBA leader in large measure because he is black and the country would not support a white OBA leader (Dunkley) at this time.

      If we are honest, Min. Bean’s sentiment is shared by many in the community.

  18. Real Talk says:

    white bda/40 thieves/ubp/oba played the race card 400 years and has never stopped

    • Real for sure says:

      And now we have the re-written PLP version of the last 400 years , no ?

      The UBP are a 40 year old organisation that you want to accuse of being 400 years old , so the same shoe fits for the PLP .

      So glad I’m not carrying that cross around.

  19. Real Talk says:

    the ubp name is 40 years old, the ubp in intent has been around for 400 years, just ask Trimmingham Hill

  20. Cancer says:

    Someone put it to you perfectly. So perfectly that i have to put it to you again as he did…
    “your failure to be consistent in your opinion simply makes you look as if you’re spouting information handed to you rather than actually having an opinion of your own.” Specialgirl are you a paid blogger for the PLP? Is that where our money is going?

    • Specialgirl4You says:

      @Cancer….you see how weak your ability is to debate…only capable of the same old nonsense….”You are paid blogger”….I guess this is referring to yourself. Sad individual you are.

  21. Real Talk says:

    @ cancer, u r not a bdan citizen, so none of the money is urs, per se, since when were black political supporters paid, we pay with our love and respect, you pay with greed and are repaid with bitterness. You will always be on the outside, chocking on numbers and theories of greed. we love our kids and plant secrets in their ears. poof…and their gone.

  22. Shaking the Head says:

    What I read into this poll is that many PLP supporters have now seen that they have been betrayed. Betrayed by a small number of people that used the majority for personal gains. Betrayed by the same small number who used the majority to believe that actions being taken would benefit them. Betrayed into believing that the PLP Govenment since 2004 was acting in Bermuda’s interests. Betrayed into believing the Platinum period of tourism.
    I feel for the people who have lost their jobs, and will continue to lose jobs because of the actions of these few. The PLP they believed in has turned out to be nothing but a shadow of its proud past, desecrated by a few people out to create their own wealth and standing.

    • Specialgirl4You says:

      @Shaking the Head….. Stop and reflect, during an economic downturn, all countries face such factors as job losses, cut-backs….etc…..How can you suggest that this is betrayal? The PLP are the only government that has looked out for the “people’s interest”. That is the big difference between OBA/UBP and the PLP. At present Mr. Richards and the OBA/UBNP fans are blaming government for spenting monies on the people. Please you can not spin it both ways..Lets get real in the debate, and stop spinning out the OBA/UBP rhetoric. Looks like your shaking you head in the wrong direction.

      • Shaking the Head says:

        You must be very close to the Premier to continue with all your comments. Read what I said – betrayal of the PLP by a small number of people. You must learn to read and think for yourself. All I will say is that if you and the Premier really believe that borrowing $200m each year to pay salaries is an investment for the future, you are clueless. This year is probably the last to run up another debt before the real reductions have to be made. The fact the the Premier has had to suspend pension contributions, use the sinking fund to pay interest (it was put in place by the UBP to pay the actual debt), consider a Bermuda Bond and inflate revenue (all in this year’s Budget) clearly shows that she cannot borrow any more from the International markets without agreeing to severe austerity measures. This is no spin, unlike the comments from yourself and the Cabinet.

  23. Cancer says:

    Whether born here or not – I am allowed to cast my vote. I was here when the UBP first came into power! I was here to see the the great things the UBP did – I saw their rise in power and their fall from glory. I saw and voted when the UBP were deservately kicked out. I voted PLP back in 98. We have now seen the PLP rule. The first few years were good until fives years ago greed came into play. The people are now tired and it’s time for change. If the OBA don’t do a good job we’ll kick them out too. Right now the OBA are the best chance we have. PLP will go down as the worse government this country as ever had. I’m sure someone on this thread will back me up on this!

    • Specialgirl4You says:

      @Cancer you must be one of those old English man from the UK, who believe everything should be their way, and that leadership should only be in the hands of the whites. You forgot to go back to your homeland, and now believe that everything in Bermuda should be as you say. Stop telling stories, your history reflects that you would die rather than vote for the PLP. YOur one of those hard white people that will never support any black government. Stop fooling yourself.

      • get over it says:

        So just because cancer has a different view than your , one you happen to hate with a passion , he all of a sudden is some white English foreigner ? ?

        What if he happened to be (unbeknownst to you) a white guy who passionately loved the PLP and everything they did .. you would assume he was a black local ?

        Thanks for showing us who really has the race problem around here . smdh

      • mrwiggin says:

        The vitriol that comes out of your mouth is simply disgusting. You should be ashamed of yourself.

        Bigotry, plain and simple.

      • Questioning Everything says:

        I swear I read that @Cancer wrote “I voted PLP back in 98″…so what is SpecialGirl4You going on about? Did she not read where he cast his vote to put the PLP in power? How is this person a PLP hater? IMO, SG4Y, you need to take a break from the internet and go out into the “real” Bermuda, and face the reality that is out there, not inside that bubble you are wearing around your head.

    • Pastor Syl says:

      Sadly, Cancer, I have to agree with you. Sad, disappointed, disgusted and betrayed – and I was staunch PLP. Such high hopes, such deep despair. SP4U – all your spin doesn’t make it any better, just makes me feel worse, because I see you as representative of those who refuse to see the reality that this island is on the tipping point of an incredibly deep abyss, and the PLP show no signs of knowing how to pull us back from the edge. Yet you will still vote them back in.

  24. vibe says:

    who’s pollsters did the poll? I dont see any mention of it. and thats funny.

    • Strange says:

      Profiles of BDA which is owned by Cordell Riley

  25. Trident says:

    “I was here when the UBP first came into power! I was here to see the the great things the UBP did”
    u mean like the belco riots in 1965, or the race riots in 1977, or the island strike in 1981 where the UBP called out armed soldiers on their own people. Everyone of those caused irreparable damage to bda and were all caused by a failed UBP govt., essentially 3 riots in 13 years, not to mention the skirmishes down on the docks in the 60s. Are those the great things that you speak of cancer. guess why these riots occurred, cuz the UBP put $$$ b4 its people, the OBAUBP promise to do the same thing, just look at their “platform”,

    • Fish R Man says:

      Yes but all of these “riots” paled in comparison to those going on in other countries around the world. It was a condition of the times when people were fighting for equal rights. To compare that to the present day is nonsensical and foolish. Frankly I am surprised that there hasn’t been a riot in regard to where they are taking this country. People marched on Parliament after the Uighur’s and that did nothing. Stop pretending like everything is fine right now…it isn’t.

  26. Cancer says:

    @specialneedsgirl. Need not worry about me and my history. You need to look in the mirror at yourself. You cannot deny your a PLP blind loyalist probably another one being paid by he PLP ! You will defend the flip flop party to the very end no matter what damage they have done to the island. Any other blind person (other then PLP blind loyalists) could see the bad behavior, money gone missing, damage to small and big business and flipflop policies of his govt have ruined the island. It will now take the OBA extra hard work and management to get this island back on track. The people of Bermuda must decide not to take this type of management any more. A PLP government at the next election will certainly ruin us to the very end. Specialgirl you need to open your eyes and see the light. Many others are doing so but of course because of your blinders you cannot see what’s just in front of you… Have a good day!

  27. Real Talk says:

    the paid blogger Cancer is using typical republican talking points, flip flop, debt crisis, the oba must have a republican campaign advisor. If anyone thinks that people like cannonier, donte hunt and sean crockwell can lead this country, think again, criag doesnt even run his gas station, shawn cant run his life and donte is a dunce (ask him)”blind loyalist” is phrase cooked up in market research as a way to try and undermine plp loyalty, studies showed that the plp cant be beaten in a fair fight so the next step is try and turn plp supporter against themselves, an old colonial trick, most savagely used in rwanda. there is a reason why cancer etc do not extol the virtues of the obaubp, they have none, the only hope is to try and bring down the plp. but cancer speaks the truth as a white male expat bda in the 60s was great for him, he got any job he wanted got to be a 1st class citizen and even got to vote in local elections all at the expense of local bdans, of course he wants the obaubp back in power – he wants the good old days back

    • Pastor Syl says:

      That’s funny! All along, I have assumed that Cancer is a woman, white maybe, but definitely female. Maybe you all know more than I do.

      @ Real Talk: God forbid that I should come off as a republican – they are anathema to me, but honesty requires all of us to admit that the PLP HAS rescinded/stepped back on/revamped…oh, alright! flip-flopped on a few too many issues, and that we are definitely in the middle of a debt crisis. If you can’t see that more that $1 BILLION dollars in debt is a crisis, I have to give up in despair.

      • Pastor Syl says:

        Sorry, hit send by accident.
        If you can’t see that, then you are blind and loyal above and beyond.

  28. Bascome says:

    What is the very latest poll?