NOAA Still Expects Above-Normal Season

August 6, 2022

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] continue to forecast an “above-normal Atlantic hurricane season,” according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update

A spokesperson said, “Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued today by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

“NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% [lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance]. The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.

NOAA Bermuda August 6 2022 (1)

“NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-20 named storms [winds of 39 mph or greater], of which 6-10 could become hurricanes [winds of 74 mph or greater]. Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes [winds of 111 mph or greater]. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

“So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“This outlook is for overall seasonal activity, and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely governed by short-term weather patterns that are currently only predictable within about one week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

NOAA Bermuda August 6 2022 (2)

“There are several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions, which are favored to remain in place for the rest of 2022 and could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate, or slightly enhance hurricane activity.

“In addition to a continued La Niña, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon and likely above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures set the stage for an active hurricane season and are reflective of the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.”

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Comments (2)

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  1. puzzled says:

    So much misleading statements from host and others.
    Every minute it changes.
    Nothing is happening.
    Get it right or give us the weather channel.

  2. LOL - the real one says:

    The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Perhaps, maybe, it will, just wait! Now keep planning based on our forecasts that are never right.

    A great story would be an article showing prediction vs. actual by years for the last 20 years.