Survey: 46.8% Would Vote PLP Next Election

January 24, 2011

Research Innovations surveyed 403 Bermuda residents on a number of factors including personal views of the three leaders of Bermuda’s political parties, economic conditions and voting intentions.

The survey showed that Premier Paula Cox is viewed the most favourably of the three political leaders, with 84.3% of the respondents having a favourable overall opinion of her, compared to 43.7% for UBP Leader Kim.Swan, and 25.3% for BDA Leader Craig Cannonier.

When asked “If there was a General Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?” the majority of respondents [46.8%] said the PLP, with 12.8% of respondents saying they would vote for the UBP, while 3.9% said the BDA would get their votes.

On the economy – 68.3% felt that the economy is moving in the wrong direction, and only 8.3% ranked the economic conditions in the country today as ‘good’.

403 Bermuda residents were surveyed, and the question on voting intentions was only asked of registered voters. Selected highlights of the poll are below:

Do you approve or disaprove of the way Premier Paula Cox is handling her job as Premier?

  • Approve: 57%
  • Disappprove: 8.3%
  • Not Sure: 34.1%

What is your overall opinion of Premier Paula Cox, favourable or unfavourable?

  • Favourable: 84.3%
  • Unfavourable: 7.9%
  • Not sure: 7.9%

What is your overall opinion of UBP Leader Kim.Swan, favourable or unfavourable?

  • Favourable: 43.7%
  • Unfavourable:34.9 %
  • Not sure: 21.4%

What is your overall opinion of BDA Leader Craig Cannonier favourable or unfavourable?

  • Favourable: 25.3%
  • Unfavourable: 24.9%
  • Not sure: 49.8%

In general are you satisfied with the way things are going in Bermuda?

  • Satisfied: 24%
  • Dissatisfied: 68.1%
  • Not sure: 7.9%

How would you rate economic conditions in the country today?

  • Good:8.3%
  • Fair: 51.1%
  • Poor: 40.6%

In general would you say the economy is moving in the right or wrong direction?

  • Right: 22.7%
  • Wrong: 63.8%
  • Not sure: 13.5 %

If there was a General Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

  • PLP 46.8%
  • UBP 12.8%
  • BDA 3.9%
  • Independent 3.4%
  • None 2%
  • Other 0.5%
  • Refused 15.3%
  • Not sure 15.3%

Research Innovations is Bermuda’s oldest market research company. Established in 1992, it conducts research in Bermuda and the wider Caribbean for both the private and public sectors. In a world abundant with information, Research Innovations provides the necessary insights for effective decision-making. For more information contact Walton Brown via email at walton “at” researchmix.com or visit Researchmix.com.

Update 4:40pm: All three political parties have responded, the statements are here.

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Comments (41)

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  1. Dragging A Lure says:

    The poll results indicate that the UBP's poison strategy of attack, attack and more attack without offering any viable solutions is a bitter pill to take. I also believe that the poll indicates that the UBP are ripe for a leadership change. The last couple of weeks we have seen a lot of Cole Simmons, Bob Richards on Bernews, Michael Dunkley on TV and no Kim Swan. What's happening?

    Drag

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  2. Where is the value in this poll? 403 of the approx. 46,000 eligible voters is less than 1 percent of the voting pool.

    I'm curious what the numbers would show if they had surveyed at least 1200 voters (+2%).

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    • White Jesus says:

      Why should your curiosity stop at 1200? Why not the entire population of eligible voters? It's a sample, albeit with a margin of error, but just how much difference do you expect to see? The opinions of 403 people has no value? In that case, how much value should one place on YOUR one opinion? Hows that for margin of error?

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  3. LOL (original) says:

    Why ask the people's opinion on these issues if the following is true?

    In general are you satisfied with the way things are going in Bermuda?
    Satisfied: 24%
    Dissatisfied: 68.1%
    Not sure: 7.9%
    How would you rate economic conditions in the country today?

    Good:8.3%
    Fair: 51.1%
    Poor: 40.6%
    In general would you say the economy is moving in the right or wrong direction?
    Right: 22.7%
    Wrong: 63.8%
    Not sure: 13.5 %
    I guess the PLP will have a pass indefinitely why even hold money wasting elections?
    Besides we all know it really does not matter who the opposition is.

    LOL

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  4. Terry says:

    Nail on the head 'LOL'.

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  5. ABC says:

    Just wondering if the telephone interviewers for Research Innovations are locals? Or whether you contract it to an overseas call centre (& contribute to thier economy) like the Omnibus is???

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  6. Sal C says:

    What is truly interesting is that the current finance minister, is none other then the Hon. Paula Cox, who has presided over the purse strings for a number of years and who truly should have on her desk "the buck stops here". we are in this mess and with it the downward spiral of Bermuda due to her.

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  7. read everything says:

    its funny how just because some people dont agree with the results, they then want to find fault with the poll. maybe the answers are exactly what they seem to be.

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  8. Dragging A Lure says:

    The responses so far (except Drag's) indicates that the supporters of the UBP are wasting no time in the process of applying their "DENIAL STRATEGIC PLAN" ----- let's attack and destabilise the credibility of Research Innovations.

    So predictable!!!

    Cheers

    Drag

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    • Huh? says:

      Asking questions as to the validity of the poll does not make one a UBP supporter, nor does it "attack and destabilise" the credibility of Research Innovations. Statistics is a science and if RI approach was sufficiently independent and robust, then their reputation would remain intact. but the results do beg a few questions, such as:
      It would be interesting to know who commissioned the research, and how the sample was taken. Was it random?
      As Louis above notes, 403 people is rather small sample given the size of the population that the results will be extrapolated over. And how many people answered the question about who they would vote for if there was an election tomorrow? Five? Fifty? 403?? This article does not say. It only says that registered voters were asked the question, but does not say how many.
      Maybe people are questioning the results because the large majority of people appear to be dissatisfied, but if given the choice, they would overwhelmingly vote for the status quo. This seems a little inconsistent.
      Finally, it would be interesting to know how the questions were asked, since "personal views" are often difficult to translate into hard percentages.

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      • LOL (original) says:

        One guest ion I want to ask why does Dragging refer to him self in the third person?...................... My precious my precious......................

        LOL

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        • Dragging A Lure says:

          To: LOL (original),
          I will answer your question, the third person means that I'm a supporter of the UBP. Ha Ha Ha

          Drag

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  9. Terry says:

    Maybe the poll is correct. Well it is, fact that they spoke to 403 people. Thats cool.

    So people want to re-elect the PLP. Fine with me.

    Thats not gonna change nor is the basket being held on it's way to hell.

    Reality checks needed.

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  10. Truth is killin' me says:

    Let's see what everybody says after next month's lovely BUDGET!

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  11. LOL (original) says:

    I have not discredited the research company I have looked at the numbers and the results of their pole and asked a question based on their findings. It points to a now provable fact that supporters of the PLP will vote PLP even if they do not have confidence that they are doing a good job. I think the mantra is "best person for the job" when this it is proven to not be the case as the numbers suggest. This is just like saying that people vote based on something... emotion not on performance. So UBP are accused of voting UBP no matter what and the PLP are doing the same what is the commonality here?

    LOL

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  12. Triangle Drifter says:

    If the poll has any credibility at all it shows what a dumb bunch we Bermudian voters are.

    68% of us are disatified with how things are going in Bermuda. The situation we are in now is the result largley of the PLPs inability to manage Government.

    91% rate our economice position as only fair or poor. See 12 years of waste & incompetence of the PLP.

    Just 22% think that the economy is moving in the right direction. I wonder how many of those polled are civil service employees with great job security?

    Despite the poor rating of the PLP Government, which caused this mess, 46% say they would vote the PLP again. Only in Bermuda...Another World.

    If this was a municipal election in the US there would be protesting in the streets & the PLP would be tossed out for such dismal performance.

    I guess we will continue to get what we deserve. When your pink slip arrives or you are reduced to a 3 day week, go look in the mirror & blame yourself.

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  13. Tired of nonsense says:

    These results are very much an eye opener into the mindset of Bermuda's electorate:

    > Approx. 2/3s of the respondents believe that the economy is moving in the wrong direction
    > Aprox. 70% of the respondents do no believe that the island as a whole is not miving in the right direction

    But...

    > Approx. half of the respondents will continue to vote the ruling party back into power despite their dissatisfaction noted above

    It makes for very interesting, and sad, reading and provided an insight into the Bermudian electorate psyche...

    PS: Research Innovations Ltd was started and owner by Walton Brown...

    http://www.researchmix.com/about_us

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    • Tired of nonsense says:

      "PS: Research Innovations Ltd was started and OWNED by Walton Brown…"

      My apologies...

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  14. Terry says:

    @ Tired. Are you saying that Walton Brown is biased or something is amiss?

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    • Tired of nonsense says:

      Not at all.

      People were questioning who the company was (i.e. local or foreign)...

      I typed in the company's name and found that link and confirmed that it was a local entity...

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  15. Terry says:

    Still does'nt answer my question. Is Brown biased in any way.

    Lets say...Simmons...not too many whites.
    Brangman, Lottimore, Talbot, Smith, .......Trimingham. ,,,,( two left).

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    • Tired of nonsense says:

      I guess you can argue that he would be as he is and has always been a part of the PLP and Bermuda's political scene...

      But I am still having a little trouble understanding your second part of the post? Are you referrinng to the people polled as to whether or not it reflects the true demographics of the island?

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  16. Hmmmmm says:

    The inability of most of you to marry the results of this poll to what your media churns out with respect to this Government is precisely why the UBP is in ICU and why the BDA can't get out of the maternity ward. Are you all so arrogant that you cannot accpet the fact that maybe the people are not buying what you're selling? All this talk about debt and missing money is your world not the world of the average Bermudian. In the grown-up world people know the positive effects this Government's programmes and spending have had on their lives. Until you stop trying to tell people that the services and benefits they enjoy (and voted for) every day are not real you will always fail. If you want to attack then attack using what you would do differently. Good luck convincing the populace that the only way to run Bermuda is the way the UBP would do it. Been there, done that, rejected it three times and itching to do it for a fourth. This kind of thinking explains why you all were so confused: Dr. Brown has a 26% approval rating BUT can fill to overflowing the Southampton Princess for a farewell gala and Party fundraiser. Keep believeing your own propaganda.........the revolution has not been televised or printed.

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    • Mike says:

      Nice response Hmmmmmmm

      The bit you left out of course is the important bit. At the rate you're going, you won't be able to afford the benefits.

      Funny how you missed that bit out.

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  17. Tired of nonsense says:

    So do you think that Bermuda is doing ok right now and that all crticisms and worries over the state of BDA is nothing but unfounded fear mongering by white people? Hence your underhanded statement of "your media."

    Have all the companies that are downsizing, reporting dimished sales, cutting back on hours and freezing wages also been duped by the media into thinking everything isn't as it should be?

    Are the downfalls in the Govt revenue coupled with the under-budgetting for expenses also fabricated media propaganda?

    I am assuming the Premier has also fallen for the propoganda as she is seeking to decrease Governmental spending. Actually the whole of Govt has been duped as they are seeking overtime freezes as well.

    Guess the gun crimes have all been fabricated as well along with the Auditor General reports on "overruns." Shoot, even the fact that retailers have been reporting diminshed sales for the 20th consecutive month must also be lies.

    The fact that we now are paying almost $27mn a year in interest payments via the recent $500mn bond issue is also a fabricate truth by "our" media (whatever that means).

    The Bermuda college economics professor, Craig Simmons, along with other finance pundits have also been fooled into believing that the Bermuda's economy is faulty while I assume you just believe commentators such as Larry Burchall (who always pens an excellent commentary on how things are) is nothing but a a house negroe right?

    The average voter that you speak of knows very little about how an economy works and that was evidenced by a recent post in which the poster stated that we should not worry about Govt spending as it is their money to spend and they have never asked for handouts from him to pay for services. He was right the Govt doesn't ask they just take via increases of taxes in the middle of a recession.

    Out of curiousity what exactly would you like to see at the end of your so called "revolution?"

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    • Tired of nonsense says:

      And please when you answer my "revolution" question please don't hold back as I am tired of people using phrases such as "your media" and other backhanded digs at white people without being forthcoming with your true feelings?

      So lets hear it please...

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  18. Hmmmmm says:

    Well whose media is it ? it certainly ain't mine. If a person arrived in Bermuda today (well before 1st November 2010) they'd think the Opposition was this strong, Government-in-waiting whose members were well spoken, eloquent and just chomping at the bit for a chance to return to government. That is precisely the impression "your media" creates. Meanwhile, the reality is a fractured, dying Party with no clear message, thrown even more for a loop with the exit of Dr. Brown. Never have 9 out of 36 been made to sound like so many. I sometimes think people could be forgiven for forgetting that the Opposition is 9 out of 36 members in the House of Assembly, so effective is your media in their work. So my dig isn't backhanded at all its reality. For what its worth, hopefully this poll will help this Premier to be a little bolder and run the risk of white people not liking her for a change. What use is an 83% approval rating and a 46% electoral dominance if you're still going to run the shop according to the Royal Gazette?

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    • Tired of nonsense says:

      So you're an advocate for segregation in other words through your words of mine and yours?

      So maybe the media should forget the opposition, givet them no voice, and focus squarely on the ruling party...like Zimbabwe an Iran?

      "hopefully this poll will help this Premier to be a little bolder and run the risk of white people not liking her for a change"

      I have been told that is how PLPers rate their leaders (i.e. the more they piss of white people the better). What would you like her to do that will piss off white people and make you feel better about yourself?

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    • Tired of nonsense says:

      So until all industries are devoid of white owners/managers and have succomb to black dominance Bermuda will never be free huh?

      Did I get the stereotyping thing right?

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  19. Hmmmmm says:

    Your anger does your obvious intelligence a disservice. Most of what you have said isn't worthy of this site's balance and healthy debate, but one or two things do merit a response. I actually do believe that much of what you hear is background noise to a wider refrain which is that Bermuda isn't what it used to be, so by definition it's bad. That is not only false but its dangerous. And I do think the Premier has fallen into the trap of not defending this Government's record. I believe she thinks,wrongly, that we can somehow save ourselves into prosperity. In any event, you're interested in the race piece so I'll help you with that. Ask yourself why the only black leaders that enjoy popular white support are those who did little or nothing. Before Sally Bassett the only statue of a black person was Johnny Barnes. Why? Could it be that he represents a black image that's safe and comfortable for whites in this country? When you ask whites to name their top Premiers, the list starts with Sir John Swan and ends with Alex Scott and the only name in between is Dame Pamela Gordon. Between them I can't even remember what they achieved beyond occupying the office for various lengths that were record breaking; two for being the shortest of their Parties and one for being too long. ( I think I'm wrong on that though, David Saul was shorter, and someone will correct me) I have no issue with the media as they are. I think they are the most effective tool the Government has. They crystallize the debate in such stark terms that the people are reminded every day why they are prepared to put up with the faults of the PLP.Lastly, as to whether these companies believe the recession is real and are actually suffering, check out page 14 of today's Gazette. The same firm that you cite as proof of just how bad it is, is advertising for a relatively junior lawyer 10 days after they announced redundancies. Something's not quite right with that........maybe the recession is cover for them to do what they otherwise couldn't get away with......and why is a job advert 20 pages away from the usual spot for them......hmmmmmmm. As for a debate on my views on segregation, if you can't handle the phrase "your media" you ain't ready for that chat.

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    • Tired of nonsense says:

      First of all I am angry when hated filled and intolerant indivduals believe that they retain the right to tell others that they are both hate filled and intolerant and need to change thei rways. For the record anyone that gauges political leadership by the amount of white people they can piss off and make life miserable for is by definition hateful and intolerant. I say that is ten times more dangerous then your belief that others believe that change is bad.

      In regards to the statues I see what you mean. I mean there is hardly a day that goes by that I don't trip and/or mistakenly walk into the over-abundnace of white Bermudian statues all over this island. Oh wait, no I don't. Must be racist.

      So you are saying white people are racist because they didn't overwhelmingly support Dr. Brown as he made his persistent derogatory digs at white people? So I guess you would have no problem supporting Michael Dunkley if the shoe was on the opposite foot. I love how you guys make these nasty incinuations about white people, then white people get upset about being stereotyped, and then you call them racist for not agreeing and not being a self-loathing whitey. Hilarious.

      And you are right again with your final point. The fact that there is an ad in the RG for a junior lawyer proves that the economic recession is nothing but a fabricated lie by the daily and white people to undermine the PLP. You must admit that we are pretty good as we have everyone thinking that the economy is in bad shape when in essense it has never been stronger. You caught us with that "logic" of yours. In regards to your ad placement conspiracy all I can say that is your hatred and intolerance flowing through again. As it is obvious that you find underhanded conspiracies in any and all things white related due to the inherent supremacist and hateful ways of the white people.

      PS:

      "All this talk about debt and missing money is your world not the world of the average Bermudian"

      Well that's sad that people do not seem to comprehend how Bermuda's overall economic situation can ultimately have adverse affects on their standard of living. Actually it is kind of scary that the electorate does not take this into account. But that is one of the many pit falls of democracies. I guess when all these "free" benefits have to be curtailed or worse then the "average Bermudian" will begin to understand how important the economy is and how missing money is detrimental for them as well. Until then keep on pretending that it is the media and white people who made up the dismal facts on Bermuda's economy and Govt debt. Keep banging that drum so that people keep on spending like the good times are here forever. See how that pans out for you...

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  20. navin r johnson says:

    David Saul is taller for sure. Hmmmmm(think I spelled your name correctly) you are obviously a racist who writes very well. If you are going to erect any more statues they should be to whoever created the model for International Business in Bermuda for that is the Goose that laid the Golden Eggs that has allowed party politics to continue for so long. She laid so many eggs that it did not matter who was in charge for there was so much money everyone could pretend they knew what they were doing. The Experiment of the last 12 years has thrown the Goose into menopause and the eggs are not coming at the same pace and soon she will stop laying them at all. It is unfortunate for Bermuda that Government did not just leave her alone instead of pretending that they actually knew what they were doing(immigration ministers leap to mind) for there is a limit to how much tax she will pay,money donated,people she will employ and on and on. Government has done everything possible to drive IB out of Bermuda and will now be paying the price. This next budget will show the effects of mindless tax increases to fund a bloated government and irrational policies that pander to voters. Did not have to happen if the politicians just stayed in their sand box and took the ever increasing amount of pay,pension,perks etc. instead of pretending they knew what they were doing. There is nothing to fall back on and the fat lady is singing....

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  21. Hmmmmm says:

    I merely pointed out some facts and posed what are clearly uncomfortable questions. The two responses speak volumes.If you view my comments as racist then so be it. The questions remain and until you and others who share your views address them with more than nastiness and jaded rhetorical questions people viewing these kinds of exchanges will find your version wanting.So many of you just cannot accept that maybe, just maybe, the PLP has a right to run Bermuda as it does....or period. The unspoken in your rant is that the PLP are just minding YOUR store for a period until the adults are back in charge. Such arrogance deprives people of reasoned political debate and is exactly why the poll numbers indicate what they do. The choice is between a group who've never run anything but appear to be trying and learning on the job and a group who can mount no argument except "how dare they....". Proof: Bob Richards' infamous quote: " we wouldn't be in this mess and this wouldn't have happened if I was the Finance Minister". There you have it. Pontification, outrage and vitriol does not play well with us stupid, ill-informed voters.

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    • Tired of nonsense says:

      Such interpretations (i.e. must be arrogant/supremacist because they don't fit into my narrow view of everything) and intolerance of views that don't jive with yours is the ultimate reason why there is no chance of political debate with supporters such as yourself. You jump to the "card" as soon as someone has a different view point that might, just might, hold some element of truth. But that can't be right as whites are liars. Damn, short-term memory

      And you might call it arrogance, but it is reality to most that understand the dynamics and danger of bad policy/decision making.

      But I completely understand it is much more comforting and life is made that much more simpler when any and all issues are broken down to a simple minded black vs. white issue. That way you can continue to distract from the fact of teh matter and say we can't trust them because we are righteous in our beliefs that all white people are inherently evil, underhanded and seek domination over black people. Emotions are much easier to rile up then intellect. Fair enough I see your "point."

      PS: I pointed out the deficiencies in your arguments and you ignored each and everyone. That is not debating my friend...

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    • LOL (original) says:

      So it's just a pride thing????........... See you on the corner or are you another whos house is paid for and is finanically set from your parents. Me I've had to do it all put my self though school work 7 days a week and I still don't own a home to me, an average Bermudian if Government f#*!s up the economy it does effect me so who are you trying to kid and talk down to hmmmmmmmmmmm? Your right about one thing looking though this exchange it reads like everyone needs to "grow up" all I see is tit for tat BS. The country needs a stable hand and a plan. So far no one in our political minds/ PR agents seems to have either. Hmmmmmmmmmm don't take that last statement to mean just you and your party it goes for both reminds me of those who used to take their TOPs and go home crying. The races bit is old no one my age or below cares about it as much as those who pedal BS do.

      LOL

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      • Tired of nonsense says:

        "So it’s just a pride thing????………"

        Very much so it appears...

        PLP - Party pride before country...

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    • navin r. johnson says:

      I'm not even sure what uncomfortable questions you are referring to? Was it abouot statues or monuments? I cant think of any that were in place prior to the current government...airport name changed to honor Frederick Wade...that's ok..court house statue for Lois Brown Evans..that' ok. What other statues or monuments are you referring to and who cares. And what white people sit around wondering who their favorite premier is?. The PLP is minding the peoples store and not yours or mine. I'm also not sure who you are referring to regarding Pontification, outrage and vitriol..you or anyone who disagrees with you?

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  22. Tired of nonsense says:

    "The unspoken in your rant is that the PLP are just minding YOUR store for a period until the adults are back in charge"

    Do not attempt to put words in my mouth. If I wanted to say that or if that is what I meant I would have no problem voicing that opinion. Unliek you I don't need to respond under veiled digs and dergoatory terms because you don't look like me. Personally that quote alone demonstrates the type of arrogance that you accuse others of portraying. You do not know what people think yet you assume to know the way white people think because of the stereotypes that you retain in that mind of yours of a whole race of people. Isn't that form of stereotyping something that black people fought and still continue to fight against as of today? So why are you so quick to stereotype others? Little hypocritical I believe...But I have the utmost faith that you can justify it in some round about way...

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    • The truth shall set you free says:

      "So many of you just cannot accept that maybe, just maybe, the PLP has a right to run Bermuda as it does….or period."

      LOL. That's rich. No political party or individual has a 'right' to run anything. Being elected is a honor that should not be taken lightly, not a right.

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      • Tired of nonsense says:

        Yeah I noticed that myself. Scary stuff for sure. Reminds me of how Zimbabwe's Zanu-PF and Iran's current ruling party justifies their consistent breaches of democratic as well as human rights via their "divine" right to rule. Today alone Iran hung 2 people for demonstrating in anti-Govt protests. Scary sh*t...

        What's even scarier is that indviduals in this island with that type of thought process that due to their inherent "right" to lead a country that they should also be absolved and immune to any and all crticisms. Hence the need to distract from the criticism itself and focus upon the messenger.

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