Poll: Economy Most Important Election Issue

December 14, 2012

[Updated] According to poll results released by Total Research Associates, the OBA holds the lead among eligible voters, and just over half of all voters say the economy is the most important issue in this election.

A statement from the Research agency said: “The One Bermuda Alliance holds a clear lead among eligible voters (40%) in the upcoming election compared with support for the Progressive Labour Party (21%), though a significant portion of those eligible to vote (31%) are undecided or refuses to state their voting intentions, indicating that the election could be closer. A small number (2%) indicated intent to vote for independent candidates.

“Analysis of results reveals that nearly two thirds of decided voters (63%) intend to vote for the OBA, while one third of decided voters (33%) intend to vote for the PLP. Overall, results show a division in support by race, with black voters being more likely to support the PLP than the OBA.

“In addition, support varies by parish, with those living in Sandys and Southampton being more likely than those living in other parishes to indicate likelihood to vote for the PLP. Support for the OBA is highest in Warwick and Paget.

“Six percent of eligible voters indicated they do not plan to vote, with eligible black voters being more likely to state that they will not cast a ballot on election day (9%) compare with white eligible voters (1%).

“The election will hinge upon candidates’ response to the current economic situation, as one half (52%) of those polled indicate that the economy is the most important issue in this election.

“In addition, unemployment was highlighted as an important issue (17%), along with debt/finances (7%), crime/gangs and violence (7%), education (3%) and accountability/integrity/honesty (3%). Total Research Associates spoke with 548 eligible voters between November 29th and December 11th.

“Results are accurate to within ± 4.2 percentage points (95% confidence level). Results reflect popular voting intention, and are not analysed based on constituency,” the statement from Total Research concluded.

The election will not be determined by popular vote - the winning party needs to claim the majority [19] of the 36 constituency seats. Going into the election the PLP has 24 seats, the OBA 10, while Kim Swan & Charles Swan hold the last 2.

You can see what seats the PLP/OBA/Swans presently hold — along with past results & this year’s candidates for each constituency — on our Election Section constituency lists page.

On the top of that page you can sort the constituencies to see what seats each party presently holds,  and do your own analysis to see what seats you think may be likely to change hands in Monday’s election.

Update: A poll conducted by the Benenson Strategy Group for the OBA also showed the OBA leading the PLP by 17 points. When asked “If the December general election were held today, would you vote for?” 49% said the OBA, 32% said the PLP, 17% said said they did not know, and 3% said Independents.

This was the third consecutive poll [performed and commissioned by separate entities] that showed the OBA leading the PLP. The Benenson poll included a 400 interview survey across Bermuda between December 7-9, 2012 The margin of error for overall results is ±4.90%

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Articles that link to this one:

  1. Possible Election Results, Looking At The Seats | Bernews.com | December 16, 2012
  1. Verbal Kint says:

    What’s up with the Accountant General? Some of the economic answers lie with her and she is being sequestered.

  2. Solidarity says:

    Racism and the economy go together. If racism wins the economy loses.

    Racism is the belief that humanity should be divided into distinct biological groups.

  3. Concerned says:

    I wonder why Mrs. Matthews hasn’t spoken out on this.

    • Argosy says:

      Actually, it’s not her job to “speak out”. It is to audit the Gov’t finances and produce a report. Plain & simple. However:

      Ask the PLP why her role has become so complicated and convoluted.
      Ask the PLP why they jailed her predecessor.
      Ask the PLP why one of their Ministers called her predecessor a racist.
      Ask the PLP why the current Minister of Finance/PERMIER will not release the financial data she requires for her audit.

      No wonder we are calling for her to speak out.

      Why would anybody (unless they really are “under intelligent”) believe that this equals “transparency”? Don’t they even think about these things? Obviously NOT!

      • Nanny Pat says:

        Preach!

        Sadly, none of these questions will be asked before the 17th. Yet, the sheeple will just blindly vote this incompetent lot back in. And where are we then? We are stuck with more of the same but getting progressively worse. I have many friends who are planning their “exit strategy” – and these aren’t ex-pats either. A common comment around the water cooler lately has been “I will ride this until the wheels fall off and there’s only one wheel left. Dec. 17th will be telling.”

        So that’s what we have to look forward to. And I thank the many blind PLP voters for the continued unemployment, gang violence, murders, drugs…. It’s pathetic. Use your brains people.

      • Verbal Kint says:

        I was actually addressing the administrative leave of the Accountant General. She was supposedly on admin leave until yesterday. What is up, there?

      • Eastern says:

        @Verbal Kint

        Are you talking about the Accountant General or the Auditor General?

        I assume you mean the Auditor General, but I could be wrong – There’s a real big difference between the two.

        • Verbal Kint says:

          Accountant General. Anyone know what is going on?

          • I was told the Accountant General wrote a cheque for overtime pay but was told by a Minister to write the cheque to a third party. That is what I was told. Now if that is correct, that is interference and irregular behaviour as an Accountant General is not suppose to write any cheques to a third parties. If this is what happened, then you have to ask, “What IS going on?”

  4. WhatAboutUs? says:

    Agreed.
    Why doesn’t anybody know what’s going on with the Accountant General?
    Why do most of the Government Departments currently have a gag order imposed on them?
    Why has the PLP Government asked the Bank of Butterfield not to go ahead with its massive layoff plan until after the election? Was this part of the $200 million bail out deal?
    Why don’t the Bermudian people know what is going on? Where’s the transparency?

    I wasn’t going to vote…. but I’m worried about our future and am now convinced change is needed

  5. Andrew says:

    The PLP have brainwashed us into thinking that Bermuda is suffering because the whole world is suffering. They blame our problems on the global recession which started in 2008. But check out this youtube video if you want a proper perspective…INCREDIBLE! http://youtu.be/Co1kGYemYQ4

    • ABC says:

      good stuff andrew and dats FACTS

      ( ^_^)o自自o(^_^ )

      PLP RUIN IT PLAIN AND SIMPLE

      , ; , .-’”"”‘-. , ; ,
      \\|/ .’ ‘. \|//
      \-;-/ () () \-;-/
      // ; ; \\
      //__; :. .; ;__\\
      `—–\’.'-…..-’.'/—–’
      ‘.’.-.-,_.’.’
      ‘( (..-’
      ‘-’

      ON MONDAY GOOD BYE

    • status! says:

      @Andrew—you are simply brainwashed!!!!!The PLP government and all governments are fueled by private sector! If the private sector are not making enough money it is also their failure, if PLP policies are holding them back from bringing in people to run their businesses then they are incompetent to run a business! I don’t care about those statistics I certainly would expect for us to be on the low ebb simply because we do not have the resources! So screw your statistics! We rely on the US$ so the trickle down effect hasn’t reached us yet…don’t believe the hype..its a sequel!How does bringing in foreigners to work going to give the three thousand Bermudians a job?!Since you have limited brain capacity there are some of us who have some great ideas, which don’t include a heavy reliance on a discriminating source!

      • Andrew says:

        @status. The PLP cannot have it both ways. Their campaign message is clear: WE (government) grew the economy until the global recession but the economic problems we face are out-of-our control. They cannot have it both ways. Business ownwers that are incompetent go out of business. Good ones just relocate to jurisdictions that are more business friendly. SO when the PLP put the payroll tax up in 2010 (in the midst of our recession), jobs were lost and our economy went further into recession. Same with immigration policy – tightening at a time when competetent business owners needed labour to save jobs. Most economies of the world grew in 2010 and 2011 and this year are because they were lowering taxes and reduced barriers to allow in foreign capital – human and financial. It is clear that the PLP have not moved fast enough nor gone far enough. For example, they promised international business that immigration reform would happen by July 2012. Now it is in their platform as something to do in the next five years. And the one-stop-career centre was in their 2007 platform – but it is still not done so it is in their 2012 platform! The 2012 platform says they are going to enhance the job makers Act – but when they passed that incentive for business earlier this year business told government that it did not go far enough…now, after so many more job losses, the PLP are going to change it! I could go on but the bottom line is that no amount of insulting me will change my mind. My vote is switching from PLP to OBA…..in fact 5 in my household are swtching to OBA this time. We have had enough of the double speak.

        • James Rego says:

          @Andrew. Well said. Like the Cockroach they scurry when you shine a light on them.

          On 17 Dec vote for our economy, your children’s education and future, your job and mine. Please vote OBA.

      • de ja vodoo says:

        You subcribe to the plp policy of finacial disruption. Your lack of understanding of fractional reserve banking and the bond markets are showing

  6. swing voter says:

    This ‘new’ PLP….is not the PLP….the ‘new’ PLP can never withstand what the PLP hero’s had to take to get us to 1998…Even Laverne has to agree, the ‘new’ PLP does not represent the fundamental beliefs, values, and yes, pure motives of the original PLP….I can’t vote for this ‘new’ PLP. Send them a message, ‘you don’t deserve the keys to our future, go back to opposition status and recover your original PLP roots’

  7. theothersidebda says:

    Interesting perspective on the economy can be found here…a must watch video of the facts.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co1kGYemYQ4&feature=youtu.be

    • Betty Dump says:

      Oh nooez buhy at least deee pee ahl pee guberment iz helpin Bwemuda to stand strong above Libya

      • Charles says:

        I am sorry but I saw economies belonging to some countries whose currency is still strong way down that list not far above us. And the measurement is of “GDP growth”. What does that mean in terms of the big picture? And even though i am not sure about the OBA and have no idea (because they have not told us how) how they intend to deliver all these promises I should vote for them anyway?….I am still not sure….sorry….you have to be very careful of well organized ads like that which tend to make dramatic points by taking information out of context…

  8. Gwelly jack: says:

    The OBA is not ready to lead Bermuda forward. They have never did anything before so why put Bermuda’s future in the hands of these novice people goverment. That taking a big chance we con’t take. When will peple wise up and see the PlP is the one party that can take care of Bermuda going to the forward days ahead. What did they do that was so wrong that peopel hate them? Is it jealousy or what? That is the only thing I can think of.

    The OBA talks out both sides of there mouth depending on what day! They tell us what we want to here! Cant you see that? They can’t fix things-they are too busy fighting behind our backs!

    No, the choice for Bermuda is the one who take care f us all this time-The PLP goverment!!!

    • Pete says:

      Kwelly Jack.
      Either a brilliant troll
      Or ringinging endorsement for the opposition party.
      If this is the level of intellect that the PLP produces ,
      Bermuda has nary a chance if they get reelected.

    • de ja vodoo says:

      What planet are you from gwelly?

  9. Xman says:

    This election is looked at in many ways

    MY LATEST SONG

    VOTE PLP AND SEE DOOMS DAY
    VOTE OBA AND GET TO SEE ANOTHER DAY.
    THATS WHAT SO MANY BERMUDIANS SAY.
    THE PLP IS THERE TO PLAY AS WE WATCH OUR ISLAND GO IN DECAY
    THE OBA HAVE FOUND A WAY BUT THE PLP SAYS NO WAY
    BUT THE LAST TIME I VOTED FOR THE PLP THEY ENDED UP
    MESSIN WITH ME
    AND FOR THIS WERE GOING TO LIVE IN POVERTY
    BECAUSE THE PLP HAS MESSED UP THE ECONOMY
    IN BERMUDA WERE I LIVE THE PLP MAKES ME SHIVE
    BECAUSE I HAVE NO MONEY FOR THE WAY I USED TO LIVE
    I NOW LIVING IN A PIT

  10. Verbal Kint says:

    Accountant General. Anyone?

  11. GOD 1st says:

    I am voting for OBA how u meeeen mon lol what kind of a question is that my senses are intact.