Candidates/Past Results: Do Your Own Analysis
With the General Election set for Tuesday, July 18, take a look at all the candidates and past election results which provide an overview of the voting patterns of each area, allowing you to do your own analysis.
The OBA won the 2012 election by a margin of 19 – 17, however two MPs subsequently resigned from the party to sit as Independents, so the OBA goes into the election with 17 seats, as does the PLP, and either side needs to win 19 seats on Tuesday to claim victory.
Both parties are fielding candidates in all 36 seats, and there are 5 Independents: Thad Hollis in C#6, Gershywn Smith in C#8, Paula Cox in C#14, Elmore Warren in C#21, and Christina Storey in C#32.
Looking at past results shows there are six seats which were won with very high majorities [at least 75% and up to 91% in 2003, 2007 and 2012] and are widely considered very safe seats and highly unlikely to change hands.
The constituency and 2017 candidates for those seats are: #12 Craig Cannonier [OBA], #15 Walter Roban [PLP], #16 Michael Weeks [PLP], #20 Susan Jackson [OBA], #22 Dr Grant Gibbons [OBA] and #23 Pat Gordon Pamplin [OBA].
Those seats were won by over 75% in the last three elections, however there are also other seats widely considered to be ‘safe’ which were won by margins of at least 70%, such as C#5 Hamilton East, which the PLP’s Derrick Burgess won with over 70% in the last three elections, and C#8 Smiths South, which Cole Simons won with over 70% in the last three elections, one under the OBA and two under the UBP.
In addition to the ‘safe seats’, there are seats considered to be leaning towards one party, marginal seats, and some seats that are widely considered as having the potential to change hands.
Different people will have various views on what seats are in play, due to dynamics of candidates and other factors, and a look at the four closest seats — which were won by 10 votes or less — in 2012 is below.
Constituency #2 St George’s West is currently held by the OBA, however it was won by the closest margin in 2012 – with Nandi Outerbridge winning by 4 votes. Ms Outerbridge will contest the seat again against Kim Swan, who is running for the PLP this year:
Constituency #17 Pembroke Central is currently held by the PLP, with Walton Brown winning 353 votes to Andrew Simons’ 347 votes, and this election will see a rematch between the exact same two candidates.
Constituency #36 Sandys North is currently held by the PLP, and traditionally this seat votes PLP, however last election the OBA’s Ray Charlton won 391 votes to Michael Scott’s 399 votes, and 2017 will be a rematch between the exact same two candidates.
Constituency #27 Warwick North Central saw the OBA’s Wayne Scott defeat the PLP’s Lt/Col David Burch by 10 votes, and this year will see the Colonel run against OBA newcomer Sheila Gomez.
The seats above represent the closest margins of victory in the 2012 election, however they are not the only seats that said to be in play in this election. The PDF below contains the candidates for all 36 constituencies and results from the last three general elections [which were done under the same single seat constituencies we have now], providing an overview of the voting patterns of each area.
The full list of all 2017 General Election candidates and previous results follow below [PDF here]:
