NOAA Predicts ‘Below-Normal’ Hurricane Season
NOAA is predicting a “below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season this year, with a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.
A spokesperson said, “Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.
“The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms [winds of 39 mph or higher]. Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes [winds of 74 mph or higher], including 1-3 major hurricanes [category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher]. NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.”
“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”
“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”
A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Image courtesy of NOAA
The spokesperson said, “The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.”
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
The spokesperson said, “NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns is not a landfall forecast.”
“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov for important preparedness information,” added Graham.
A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. Image courtesy of NOAA
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Odd. President Trump destroys the “climate change” hoax, prompting a closer look by the “experts,” then the worst-case climate scenario gets dropped by the IPCC.
Cliff Notes version:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has officially retired its most extreme emissions scenario — RCP8.5 (and its successor SSP5‑8.5) — after researchers concluded it >>> no longer reflects a plausible future. <<< The scenario included massive sea level rises, global crop failures, and even extinction‑scale events. (Cats and dogs living together was a footnote.)
Now we have the usual "we are doomed" hurricane season downgraded. Hmmmm.
Connect the dots on the "climate science" and climate scientists, particularly the hundreds who claimed to be a 2007 Nobel Peace Prize winner. Why their peers say nothing is a mystery, must be the billions of dollars worldwide in grant money. Sadly, the IPCC used many of those same scientists to write AR5, AR6, and now they are drafting AR7.
Ask Mr. Big and organizations like Greenrock why Bermuda is going green at taxpayer expense to save the planet.