’0.27% Of Arriving Passengers Tested Positive’

November 18, 2020 | 7 Comments

“Since July, 24,000 passengers have arrived at the airport and only 66 of those 24,000 passengers tested positive for the coronavirus on or after arrival,” Premier David Burt said, adding that “that means just over one quarter of one percent [0.27%] of arriving passengers were infected or became infected with the coronavirus.”

Speaking at last night’s [Nov 17] press briefing, Premier Burt said, “The airport reopened to scheduled commercial flights on 1 July, and the latest analysis considers data between 1 July and 12 November. The assessment provides an accurate picture of the number of cases, the source of the increase, and informs any changes in travel policies for the country.

Air Canada lands on July 2nd; the first commercial passenger flight after a 3 month suspension

“Since July, 24,000 passengers have arrived at the airport and only 66 of those 24,000 passengers tested positive for the coronavirus on or after arrival; that means just over one quarter of one percent [0.27%] of arriving passengers were infected or became infected with the coronavirus. Just breaking that down on a month by month basis:

  • in July, the positivity rated was 0.36%;
  • in August, it fell to 0.17%;
  • in September, the positivity rate hit its lowest level measuring at 0.13%;
  • in October the positivity rate tripled the amount that it was in September measuring in at 0.39%;
  • And as of last Thursday, 12 November, the positivity rate for November was tracking at 0.38% – though that number would have come slightly as there has only been one positive case that have been reported in the last five days.

“While 66 infections is a large number for our small country, it is important to note that these are all imported cases – the 66 of them are all imported cases – and our stringent testing programme catches almost all cases.

“It is also important to note that the positivity rate that we observed in October is almost the same as what we observed in July. There were less cases as few people were travelling. However the positivity rate of .36 in July is just a bit lower than the positivity rate of .39 in October.”
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Comments (7)

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  1. Pedro says:

    By this math, there is roughly one positive for every 2 or 3 flights, despite requirements to test in advance of the flight. Good info for those considering travelling.

  2. Beaker says:

    0.27% is roughly 1 in 300 people. Don’t airplanes only carry around that many passengers? So basically, we are getting one Covid case for every flight or two?

    • Question says:

      A 737 carries 162 passengers. And that’s if it’s full. So no, it’s not a case every flight or two, or anywhere near it.

      • Toodle-oo says:

        He’s confused with the bad old days pre-1998 when there were 4+ wide body flights a day at the airport , each carrying up to or over 330 passengers.

  3. Kassandra says:

    Testing before flying is not enough as the virus has a minimum 14 day incubation period – hence the 14 day quarantine and arrival, day 4, 8 and 14 tests. This means you can contract Covid but it will not be detectable nor will you have symptoms for up to 14 days – actually cases have incubated for longer but 21 days (of quarantine, lock downs etc) was not economically viable politically anywhere in the world.

    We will get more cases unless we close the airport simply because the arrivals are from two countries with the worst infection rates (now one (USA) since BA service was suspended for 1 month after 10 or more cases came in on one flight) and that’s exactly what we want to avoid (a lockdown) due to its effects on the economy and our livelihoods. This system is working in that the spread has been significantly controlled with minimal local transmission. Now if the US’ statistics seriously worsen and more cases per flight are recorded a tough decision will need to be made.

    Not to mention that with PCR testing per Harvard Medical, false negatives occur. The reported rate of false negatives is as low as 2% and as high as 37%. The false positive rate is close to zero.

  4. frustrated says:

    Great numbers. So what rules we have in place are working…yet we tightened restrictions (back to 5 day pre-test) for what reason? This makes it so difficult for people to see their family and loved ones. What good do these numbers mean if we aren’t basing our rules and regulations around them?

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