Poll: 46% Would Vote PLP, 33% Would Vote OBA

July 16, 2015

According to a recently released poll if an election were held in May, 46% would have voted for the PLP, 33% would have voted for the OBA. 12% indicated that they were unsure who they would vote for, 6% either refused to answer the question or stated that they would not vote, and 3% said they would support independents.

In releasing the poll Profiles of Bermuda said, “If an election were held in May, nearly half of all voters [46%] would have voted for the Opposition PLP, a result that is now statistically significant [see note below on statistical significance.]

“The ruling OBA, who led the PLP by 9% in the run-up to the 2012 General Election [which they won], have now fallen 13% behind the PLP. Just over 1 in 10 voters [12%] indicated that they were unsure as to whom they would vote for, and 6% either refused to answer the question or stated that they would not vote. There was little support for independents at 3%.

“The PLP drew their support from Black voters, of whom 63% pledged their support, younger, 18-35, voters [51%], and voters between the ages of 35 and 54, at 48%. The OBA’s support came from White and Other voters [67%] and voters 55 and over [40%].”

Screenshot of the poll results

Microsoft Word - Voting Press Release 16JUL15

Poll Notes

In explaining the poll’s methodology, the company said, “Category totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. The 2015 survey was conducted among 407 registered voters between 15 April 15 and 10 May 15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8%.

“Some 75% of respon-dents were obtained by landlines, 11% by cell phones and 14% via the internet. Data for all demographics were weighted to reflect the 2010 Census. There were no statistical differences by gender and income for this analysis.”

Statistical Significance

The company said, “To conduct a complete census of the voting public, all 40,000 of them, would be too costly. As a result, statisticians have determined that if a subset of a particular population, in this case voters, were obtained through a random process, the results could come fairly close to those that could have been obtained from the entire population.

“The term ‘fairly close’ is what is known as the margin of error. As we did not interview the entire voter population, there will be some error in our results. The margin of error for this survey was calculated, using statistical techniques, at 4.8%. This means that the proportion of the population that sup-ported the PLP [46%] could in fact range from 41.2% [46% - 4.8%] to 50.8% [46% + 4.8%], had we surveyed all voters.

“Likewise, and using similar calculations, those that supported the OBA could have been as low as 28.2% or as high as 37.8%. Since the lowest point for those that supported the PLP [41.2%], is greater than the high point for those who supported the OBA [37.8%] statisticians would say that the result is statistically significant. Statisticians would also say, in this case, that had all 40,000 voters participated in the survey, they would be confident that the majority would have supported the PLP over the OBA.”

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Comments (79)

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  1. Ed says:

    Further proof that these polls are complete rubbish. PLP under Bean is unelectable and everyone (apart from these poll people) knows it.

    • Johnny says:

      So the poll that had Premier Dunkley leading Marc Bean was rubbish too I suppose.

      • Ed says:

        Johnny: I suspected that one was rubbish, I know this one is rubbish. Simply not worth a moment of anyone’s time.

        Complete BS.

      • impressive. says:

        No, That poll was acceptable because it was inline with the OBA wishes,, Whereas this poll is rubbish because the results are contrary to the OBA wishes,,. You know how it goes, wheel and come again..

      • Rhonnie aka BlueFamiliar says:

        I can’t speak for others, but personally, I think all the polls are rubbish.

        • Tolerate says:

          @Rhonnie aka Blue Familiar; I feel you on this one.

          51% PLP in touch with Bermudians to 26.3% OBA
          32% OBA trust with the Economy to 29% PLP
          50.9% Michael Dunkley to 48.9% Marc Bean
          72% oppose Independence
          Oh, and 74% overweight

          I can’t wait for the next poll result?

          75% St. George’s for Cup Match?
          68.1% Bermudian as next person to walk on moon?

          These polls are so inconsistent; I believe the 407 registered voters polled were drunk at the time.

          “so Sir you favor OBA to handle Bermuda’s economy, and you favor the Leader of the OBA but would vote for PLP?????
          Typical Bermudian voter actually.

        • Common Sense says:

          I do, too. Polls are never accurate unless you interview every single person in whatever target group the results apply to. We have polls where one month may say 60% will vote for the PLP and 40% for the OBA. The next month a totally different group of people will be polled and the results may now say that 40% will vote for the PLP and 60% the PLP and it will be proclaimed that support for the PLP has dropped. In actual fact it hasn’t-you’ve just asked a totally different group of people and determined results on that. It’s silly.

          The only way I’d trust the results is if EVERYONE was polled, or if you had a select group and asked those same people for their views from month to month. Think about how pharmaceutical do clinical trials on drugs. You don’t give pick ten people, give them the drug and then months later ask another group of people if they had side effects! No, you focus on that same group and follow them. The same thing should apply to polls.

          I know statisticians and the like will disagree with me but sorry, I’m just using basic common sense here. We do all these polls and then when election time comes we’re amazed that the results weren’t in line with the polls. Well, unless every single registered voter participates in the poll, you will never be guaranteed the result you expect.

  2. Not exactly says:

    One poll, 15 press releases and now, 4 months after the fact. Not trying to dispute the results, just tired on one poll being milked so selectively and for so long. Just publish all the results one time or don’t publish anything.

  3. Vrariance says:

    Black, white, young, old, straight, gay, born in Bermuda, born overseas and living here – we ALL share one thing in common. We are all so screwed if the PLP win the next election – believe it!

    Now as far as believing these constant polls, that’s another matter entirely.

  4. Jus' Wonderin' says:

    …..and watch the country slowly slip down the toilet again smh!

    • OBA no more lies says:

      Many people already feel like we in the toilet because of the oba fake promises.

    • Betty Dump says:

      That is absolute rubbish… It would fly down the toilet in a minute

  5. Lois Frederick says:

    Why delay the results for 3 months? The poll was conducted in April and May! This would seem to be clearly dated by now, as polls are viewed as a snapshot of the time.

    If these results are to be believed, it shows me that people have very short memories and if believed Bermuda is doomed. On the other hand as a poll taken in the middle of the OBA first term and the results have yet to be realised, the political and economic landscape will be considerably different by the time the next election is called. So there is hope.

    • Johnny says:

      Lois- looks like you pick your polls to believe. Here is your quote from a previous poll article -

      I was one of the people called back in June. Many questions were asked, so expect many more poll results. This particular result sounds much more believable than the previous one.

      Seems like you only agree with polls that are favorable of the OBA.

      • Curious says:

        If you were polled in June it wasnt for this poll. Read the article

    • Lois Frederick says:

      One always has to look at who conducts any poll. An independent pollster is the only way to get close to an unbiased result. In Bermuda that really means an overseas polling firm.

  6. Johnny says:

    This poll must be discomforting to the OBA diehards and it will be interesting to read the their comments on this one. However I don’t think they will comment much, unless they are bashing the poll.

    • inna says:

      And all you are doing is setting the bait! Famous is that you?!

      • Johnny says:

        It’s not Famous, and I ain’t fishing, – just stating the facts.

        Look at the comments for my proof.

        • Anbu says:

          Ya and its the same for u “pee el pee” diehards as well. Moan and groan when something doesnt go your way but when the truth is spoken you’re all quiet. Typical

        • Truth Teller says:

          far too many black PLP voters stayed home at the last election. They did not vote for the OBA and never will.

          They are now prepared to re-engage with the green and white and consign the OBA, their anglo support base and the black surrogates who front for them back to the opposition benches.

          The real majority is getting ready to re-assert itself once more.

    • hmmm says:

      I think if you were in the OBA, you would love this result. PLP cannot now remove Marc Bean as he can point to this poll to solidify his claim on the PLP.

  7. Real talk (original) says:

    Just think… this was before the most recent allegations made against certain OBA Ministers.

    There is trouble in the OBA camp.

    • Jus' Wonderin' says:

      There’s actually no trouble in the OBA camp as much as the beloved PLP/UBP would like to spin it lmfao and you’re just gullible for believing it to a T! Guess what…that’s all they are…ALLEGATIONS. If they were so true or damning wouldn’t people be in trouble by now, etc. Just more hot air trying to put the blame on someone else. Wahhhhh

      • Real talk (original) says:

        If there isn’t, there should be… they are shaping up to be a one-term government.

        • Jus' Wonderin' says:

          You act like that’s a good thing. Would the PLP/UBP really be the better of the two?

  8. Triangle Drifter says:

    IF this poll has a scrap of credibility it appears the Bermuda voter has not learned a thing in the past 10 years.

    Per capita the PLP put us in worse shape than Greece yet the gullible Bermuda voter would put them in again & again.

    • Real talk (original) says:

      IF this poll has a scrap of credibility it appears Bermuda’s politicians have learned even less.

    • Onion says:

      We aren’t in anything close to as bad shape as Greece. It would have taken the PLP another 5 years to totally financially gut the country.

    • PBanks says:

      Remember though, many Bermudians are raised to inherently distrust ‘the other side’ from very young, and would never cast a vote on that direction regardless of the health of the country and who’s currently in charge.

  9. hmmm says:

    Ah…so now we fully understand the makeup of the political bias of polls release on here.

    407 registered voters between 15 April 15 and 10 May 15

    It is PLP weighted.

  10. N / A says:

    The fact that many countries throughout the world including Greece recently and the richest country in the world, the United States a few years ago fell susceptible to the economic crash, why do people continue to link the PLP with the economic crash in Bermuda like any other party (OBA, UBP) would have been resistant to the effects of it? It’s fear mongering to continually link the two together. Let’s instead find ways of improving our country’s economy that we all share!

    • Onion says:

      Because the PLP pursued policies that drove business out of Bermuda and THAT is the cause of our recession. For Bermuda the global financial crisis would have been a minor hiccup followed by recovery. Instead it has been an ongoing depression that just happened to begin at the same time as the other country’s recessions.

      Larry Burchall and others have laid it out quite clearly that PLP-induced population exodus was and is the cause of our troubles.

    • Rhonnie aka BlueFamiliar says:

      You are correct in that no other party would have made Bermuda resistant to the effects of the economic downturn.

      However, the reason the PLP will forever remain linked to the severe decline of our economy is that their mismanagement of the public purse and foreign business multiplied the effects of the downturn to the dire situation we find ourselves in today. With the repercussions of those actions rippling well into the following administration.

      Short version, the PLP didn’t create the downturn, but they did make it a whole lot worse than it should have been.

    • Trulytruly says:

      The link is that the plp borrowed and spent at unsustainable levels long before and during the recession. Totally irresponsible with the counties purse strings if you can’t see that I can’t help you. Of course the plp did not cause the recession but what they did do is put us in such a weak financial position that when t did hit, Bermuda was unable to pay for Bermuda’s budget without borrowing more and more money. We are now suffering what was sowed back in 2007 – 2012.

      • hmmm says:

        The PLP borrowed and spent when we were already at full economic employment.

        It was a recipie for disaster.

      • N / A says:

        @Trulytruly I’m quite familiar with economics thank you. Without a reliable revenue stream, the most reliable and responsible of nations and political parties all over the world, must borrow money to maintain the affairs of their nations, Bermuda is no exception. Without borrowing, Bermuda would have been just as worse off. So in essense, the PLP would have been bashed for not borrowing and saving our country’s financial situation, the same way they are now being bashed for borrowing and creating debt. Reality is never perfect..

        • Trulytruly says:

          I suggest you go back and look at the charts for the last decade of govt financials. The plp had record revenues and yet still was borrowing on top of that. If prudent they would have been at the least been balancing the budget to then not be borrowing. Remember this was before any recession was anywhere near us. When the recession did hit and revenues plummeted the annual spending level was so high that the amount needed to just cover the budget became enormous and maxed out at 400 mil. Overspending in the good times put is where we are right now. A very weak finance minister alongside a premier and complicit cabinet made.very unwise imprudent financial decisions that we will continue to pay for for decades to come. Imagine If a balanced budget had been the goal is to in those times. Our borrowing ability would have been strong enough to weather the recession and stimulated the economy. Unfortunately we don’t have that choice now. We are just trying to pay the bills. Thanks to the plp.

      • What went wrong says:

        Given the PLP didn’t run a current account deficit until 2008, it seems that you are rewriting history.

        • Trulytruly says:

          Sorry 2008 – 2012. Hope that makes you feel better.

    • Longtail says:

      Because, like Greece, Bermuda’s economic demise has been self-inflicted by out of control politicians bent on spending money without any regard as to where the money might come from. In the case of the US it was also self-inflicted, but there by out of control bankers. (The last I heard – just north of the US border – there was not a single bank in Canada that required even 1¢ of bail-out money….). We are dealing with poor financial management here – and not a global phenomenon – and the blame correctly lies at the feet of those who caused the economic woes.

    • Tough Love says:

      Well said!!!

    • impressive. says:

      I agree completely, but it APPEARS that with regard to the PLP and the economic situation, if something is repeated enough, eventually it will become a fact.. As a supporter of the PLP, certainly the PLP made some bad economic decisions during their tenure as the Government, but they made some good ones.. No different from most Governments around the world I would imagine. As someone who works in the Finance Industry, its amazing that some people will go on and on about the PLP ruining the country and chasing people out of Bermuda,, Pleaseee..

      If you look at when Bermuda began running into trouble economically, you will see a trend that started around 2008, which is consistent with Global trends, but heh, let’s not discuss facts and relationships, unless they make the OBA look like the savior.

      Let’s look way back in 1998 when UBP members and supporters who, in my honest opinion, used their stereotypical mindset and kept trying to sell to the people of Bermuda that if PLP win the election, Bermuda will become like “Jamaica” basically implying, that everything will be terrible, companies will leave, the dollar will loose value, etc etc etc. On what basis did they have to make these assertions if the PLP had never been the Government up to that point?. I tell you what it was, it was a stereotype that portrays the vision that a certain demographic of people aren’t good at running business, or handling money, or making sound economic decisions or running a Government without being corrupt.

      Then came the PLP into Government, and contrary to the trend of thought that was portrayed prior to the election, the Economy began to expand, more companies came to our shores along with more expats who where needed to fill positions at these companies. But, of course, “that was because of all the hard work that the UBP had done during their time, and the PLP where only benefitting from their previous policies”.. Being honest, there was a bit of truth in that, but the PLP didn’t get any credit for continuing to keep the economy growing and passing legislation that attempted to spread the fruits of this booming economy amongst a greater number of Bermudians, as opposed to a select few.

      Then came 2008, and the global economic bubble began to burst, and Bermuda, whose two largest sectors of International Business which are Reinsurance and Investment Companies, began to fill the pinch. The directors and top management of many of these companies where forced to look at ways to cut costs to compensate for the downturn profits being made in the various stock markets around the world, as their main goal is to Maximize Shareholder Wealth.. Let’s not forget that. With that being said, many of these companies began to outsource certain functions of their companies to other jurisdictions, where they can get services done for cheaper, which is no different from what companies like Apple and others do as far as manufacturing..

      However, some people, who already held the belief that the PLP will ruin anything that was good, based on their own opinion of the world, finally had a bone to bury.. These persons finally had a valid point to support their stereotypical thoughts.. That was it, “I told you those guys can’t handle money, I told you they can’t run a country” yada yada yada.

      So no matter what was really behind these companies leaving Bermuda, as far as Anti-PLP persons was concerned, it was only a matter of time..

      So here we are today.. The plot thickens.

      • The Truth and Nothing but the Truth says:

        You are truly one that is caught up in your own BS!! Take the blinders off aceboy/girl!!!!!!!!!

    • Navin Johnson says:

      Because Bermuda is one of the few places that would have avoided the problems that the world suffered. We are a one industry economy that functioned very well during the downturn…IB flourished while the policies and rhetoric of Brown, Burch,Cox and Burgess drove people out….permits were not renewed and IB companies moved people to other locations in order to retain staff….yes the PLP put us in the Depression with their economic policies…may they never return.

      • impressive. says:

        permits were not renewed and IB companies moved people to other locations in order to retain staff….

        That is a load of crap, you should be working in hollywood with that imagination,, plzzzzzzz

        • PBanks says:

          But that’s true. Several companies outsourced entire departments, there were lots of redundancies made locally, and that hurt a ton.

  11. Navin Johnson says:

    I find it difficult to believe that any human being in their right mind would vote for the people who have put Bermuda on the brink….when interest rates begin to rise and the cost to service the mountainous debt people will remember who put us their….incredible the number of idiots out there

    • impressive. says:

      so people who don’t agree with you are idiots??

  12. blowmyfish says:

    If PLP come into power, all other parties should accept this change. Pull out of every sector and let the PLP run the country on their own. That, people, is the ultimate litmus test! For your children’s sake and their children’s sake, let this happen!

  13. Rhonnie aka BlueFamiliar says:

    The one thing I’m always curious about with these polls is the numbers of people who refuse to take the poll at all.

    Polls are only representative of the people who are willing to take part in them.

    I have refused to take part for years now due to the biased nature of many of the questions posed in the past. And I know a fair number who also refuse to be involved.

    • Vrariance says:

      Agreed, I was thinking the exact same thing myself. I, nor any of my friends I have asked, ever take part in these polls any more when called upon. I would further clarify that most of the folks I’m referring to are pro-OBA persons, or probably more to the point anti-PLP(i.e. – more likely to vote for a pumpkin than a PLP candidate).

  14. jt says:

    All Bermuda polls are unreliable. History proves this. Too much depends on who chooses to participate and/or who was randomly called. With such small numbers the randomness required is difficult to reliably achieve.

  15. Alvin Williams says:

    Really do you think that this government is going to retain Bermudian support with all the anti-Bermudian policies it has been pushing through?
    And this poll was taken before the recent allegations were made against certain OBA politicians and of course the recent statement made by another OBA politician in the senate which claims that Bermudians don’t have birthrights in the country they were born in Bermuda. Do you really think that this government even deserves Bermudian support?

    • Anbu says:

      Only antibermudian to a select few who have unbridled support of their sheeple alvin. Dont worry mate your precious party will regain power next election cycle. Its easy to win when your voting base bases their decisions emotionally as opposed to common sense. The number of dislikes will prove my point. Lol whatever mate

    • Vrariance says:

      Wrong as usual Alvin. The OBA government isn’t anti Bermudian at all. You and people that think like you just want a certain segment of Bermudians to be treated special because of a sense of entitlement. OBA would like to see ALL Bermudians have the same opportunities and prosper equally.

      Sort of like what your forefathers were fighting for not so long ago. SMDH!

    • Strike fund says:

      What about children that are born here, but not Bermudian?

      Where do you stand on their birthrights?

    • jt says:

      You are case study #1 for what Fahy was illustrating AW.

  16. BDAGIRL says:

    I am a Bermudian,registered voter, but never had I had one phone call regarding recent Polls:-
    Results On Decriminalisation Of Marijuana
    Of Voters In Favour Of Conscription
    Oppose Independence For Bermuda
    Ratings: Michael Dunkley & Marc Bean
    In Favour Of Casino Gambling
    Oppose Commercial Immigration
    Would Vote PLP, 33% Would Vote OBA
    Yes they have my phone number as a registered voter, because last election they called my house to see if I was coming out to vote.I have two sisters and two brothers with families, and they to have never received a phone call regarding these recent Polls. Where do they get this data from?.

  17. James says:

    Who in the PLP today has ever run a successful business? Who has a private sector background in finance? In banking? In international business?

    The PLP of today chased out the only person left with any financial sense (Terry Lister). The economic pedigree in today’s PLP is shockingly low, yet a worrying percentage of the population would feel a-OK handing them the reigns to Bermuda’s once again.

    I am not anti-PLP, but I am anti-stupidity, and to vote in today’s PLP as he stewards of the Bermuda economy just worries me. Sorry, but I don’t feel comfortable with fresh-out-of college David Burt in command of the public purse. The OBA isn’t all that, believe mr, but Bob Richards, at least, has experience.

    • James says:

      Error: “… handing them the rains to Bermuda’s ECONOMY…”

  18. watching says:

    And the more Fahy and Marshall shoot off at the mouth, the lower the OBA numbers will fall.

    • SMH says:

      When did they shoot off at the mouth? What did they say that wasn’t correct

    • aceboy says:

      Nobody shoots off at the mouth like the current leader of the PLP. The upcoming court case against him is evidence of that.

  19. PBanks says:

    Sad that only 3% believe the whole process is utterly broken and would prefer a genuinely new voice in local politics… while the vast majority are too tied to the respective corners and enjoy the Us-vs-Them shenanigans of the past couple decades.

  20. swing voter says:

    Polls are proven as fact or fiction or reality on election day. until 2017 they are pure speculation, 100% variance, not to be taken as gospel. OBA have until December 2017 to turn water to wine, should Jesus work some magic to help them perform the impossible

    • Rhonnie aka BlueFamiliar says:

      If you’re looking for wine, then you don’t have a proper grasp of the country’s economic position.

      Look for the grape vine first.

  21. According to the 2012 poll about 3% of respondents or less indicated they would not vote. The actual percentage of eligible voters who did not vote in that election was 34%. Only 31% off which says it all.

  22. Rich says:

    The OBA should certainly be concerned. However, a minor quibble over language.

    “Since the lowest point for those that supported the PLP [41.2%], is greater than the high point for those who supported the OBA [37.8%] statisticians would say that the result is statistically significant. Statisticians would also say, in this case, that had all 40,000 voters participated in the survey, they would be confident that the majority would have supported the PLP over the OBA.”

    No – statisticians would be confident that the plurality would have supported the PLP over the OBA. NOT the majority. It’s incredibly likely that it would be a majority, but you cannot say that with statistical confidence.

  23. Bermyman says:

    This poll stuff is getting tiresome, we are not even in an election year!?

    The best poll is a general election! Until that happens there is no point.

  24. Jurist says:

    Bermudians cannot be that dumb.

  25. sebring says:

    I am staying away from the polls next time round I will not vote for Dunkley or Richards. and most of the plp can’t speak because I look like a foreigner .

  26. Unbelievable says:

    I’m an OBA supporter and I don’t mind saying it that the OBA will not survive the next election at all. There is no way with all the “own goals” they keep scoring, no way. I would not be surprised at all if they only achieve 2003 or 2007 election results in the House of Assembly. I believe they are the better of the two evils to get Bermuda back on its feet but the next election campaign will be dirty and nasty.

    Having said that, the story is yet to be written for the PLP too. We are two years and a bit away from the next election so we don’t know what’s going to happen with that group. Lord knows they still haven’t given us any reason to like them either.

    • my2cents says:

      N this too shall pass.

    • Trulytruly says:

      There is still so much to be revealed over the next year. Stay the course.

  27. Ahhhm voting foah OBA….simply because I feel that plp are dopey….and…well…dey put us in incredible debt….I feel our representatives should be made accountable where our money is concerned…every dollar is to be accounted for at all times…nondis see no evil speak no evil hear no evil crap!